Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252320
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
620 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Light snow continues across much of the Panhandles as depicted by
latest radar scans and surface observations. Most of the moderate
snowbands have dissipated at this time and only light
snow/flurries are forecast for the rest of this evening. Updated
PoPs to keep some low end mentions for snow over the next few
hours as some light accumulations are still possible. Snow should
end across the area through the evening hours.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A winter system continues to impact the panhandles causing on and
off snow. The snow accumulations have been higher for the NW
panhandles where roughly a few inches have been seen. This amount
has decreased to nothing by the Amarillo area as the snow blew
away before it could lead to accumulation. The ongoing snow will
add a little to the snowfall amount with a further inch or so
still possible in the northern panhandles and up to half an inch
in the central to southern panhandles. It is questionable if this
snowfall will add to the snow accumulations before it is blown
away. Regardless the snow can lead to slick spots on the roads so
caution is still advised especially for the overpasses and
bridges. The snow will begin to diminish late this afternoon
through the evening as the winter system pull to the NE. A little
band of further wrap around moisture looks likely to push into the
SW panhandles late in the evening that could cause further
isolated showers. These showers, if they occur at all, will be
light and would lead to very limited to no accumulations. The
winds will remain gusty and northerly across the panhandles
through the afternoon hours as the system continues to impact the
panhandles. These winds will finally weaken as the system departs
during the evening hours becoming mainly light but still
northerly. These northerly winds have moved in a colder air mass
across the region that is resulting in cold temperatures and wind
chills. This will see the overnight lows tonight drop into the
teens to twenties with wind chills in the single digits even as
the winds will be weak.

Tuesday is likely to see another band of wrap around moisture
arrive in the panhandles which can lead to another round of light
showers. These showers like the overnight showers are likely to be
light and not result in much if any accumulation. The colder air
will still remain over the souther plains but will start to
moderate allowing for a slight warming to occur. This will see the
highs increase into the 50s with overnight lows in the mid 20s to just
above freezing.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

We find ourselves on the backside of a large scale trough on
Wednesday, as it exits the region to the east. Any perturbation
near the base of the trough Wednesday morning may take advantage
of residual moisture across the eastern Panhandles, and continue
to generate some lingering showers. With temperatures hovering
near freezing, a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out either.
Precipitation should taper off through the day though, as
northwest flow aloft settles in and drier air takes over.
Temperatures will still be well below average in the 50s Wednesday
afternoon, dropping near or below freezing area-wide overnight.

Thursday onward, the synoptic pattern will be largely
characterized by broad ridging draped across the Great Plains.
This will kick off a warming trend into the weekend, with daytime
highs climbing from low 70s Thursday, to upper 80s in the south by
Sunday. Thursday specifically appears to feature a higher
probability across the western Panhandles for gusty winds greater
than 30 mph, along with low relative humidity values less than
20%. Unfortunately, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
may be present as a result, with dry and breezy conditions
persisting through the weekend into next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Light snow will remain across the Panhandles for a few more hours
which will bring some lower visibilities and MVFR ceilings. Once
snow ends at the sites light winds are forecast overnight and a
return to VFR conditions is expected. Winds will become southerly
after sunrise and will remain on the light side, around 10 kts or
less.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                23  54  31  56 /  20  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  17  49  24  51 /  30   0  10  20
Boise City OK              15  47  25  52 /  10  10  10  10
Borger TX                  24  56  32  57 /  20  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              22  56  30  58 /  20  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  23  57  30  58 /  20  10  20  10
Clarendon TX               26  55  32  55 /  20  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 16  50  25  54 /  20  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  15  49  25  53 /  20   0  10  20
Hereford TX                23  59  30  59 /  20  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                20  51  28  52 /  20   0  10  20
Pampa TX                   22  53  31  53 /  20  10  20  10
Shamrock TX                26  54  31  53 /  20   0  20  20
Wellington TX              27  55  32  56 /  20   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>004-006>008-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...05


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