Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251907
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
207 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A winter system continues to impact the panhandles causing on and
off snow. The snow accumulations have been higher for the NW
panhandles where roughly a few inches have been seen. This amount
has decreased to nothing by the Amarillo area as the snow blew
away before it could lead to accumulation. The ongoing snow will
add a little to the snowfall amount with a further inch or so
still possible in the northern panhandles and up to half an inch
in the central to southern panhandles. It is questionable if this
snowfall will add to the snow accumulations before it is blown
away. Regardless the snow can lead to slick spots on the roads so
caution is still advised especially for the overpasses and
bridges. The snow will begin to diminish late this afternoon
through the evening as the winter system pull to the NE. A little
band of further wrap around moisture looks likely to push into the
SW panhandles late in the evening that could cause further
isolated showers. These showers, if they occur at all, will be
light and would lead to very limited to no accumulations. The
winds will remain gusty and northerly across the panhandles
through the afternoon hours as the system continues to impact the
panhandles. These winds will finally weaken as the system departs
during the evening hours becoming mainly light but still
northerly. These northerly winds have moved in a colder air mass
across the region that is resulting in cold temperatures and wind
chills. This will see the overnight lows tonight drop into the
teens to twenties with wind chills in the single digits even as
the winds will be weak.

Tuesday is likely to see another band of wrap around moisture
arrive in the panhandles which can lead to another round of light
showers. These showers like the overnight showers are likely to be
light and not result in much if any accumulation. The colder air
will still remain over the souther plains but will start to
moderate allowing for a slight warming to occur. This will see the
highs increase into the 50s with overnight lows in the mid 20s to just
above freezing.

SH

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

We find ourselves on the backside of a large scale trough on
Wednesday, as it exits the region to the east. Any perturbation
near the base of the trough Wednesday morning may take advantage
of residual moisture across the eastern Panhandles, and continue
to generate some lingering showers. With temperatures hovering
near freezing, a rain/snow mix can`t be ruled out either.
Precipitation should taper off through the day though, as
northwest flow aloft settles in and drier air takes over.
Temperatures will still be well below average in the 50s Wednesday
afternoon, dropping near or below freezing area-wide overnight.

Thursday onward, the synoptic pattern will be largely
characterized by broad ridging draped across the Great Plains.
This will kick off a warming trend into the weekend, with daytime
highs climbing from low 70s Thursday, to upper 80s in the south by
Sunday. Thursday specifically appears to feature a higher
probability across the western Panhandles for gusty winds greater
than 30 mph, along with low relative humidity values less than
20%. Unfortunately, elevated to critical fire weather conditions
may be present as a result, with dry and breezy conditions
persisting through the weekend into next week.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A winter system continues to impact the panhandles today bringing
low clouds to all the terminals. This system is producing snow
which has reduced visibilities down to half statue mile. These
MVFR to IFR conditions will persist through the early evening then
begin to improve to VFR conditions as the system departs. Winds
remain gusty for the afternoon and early evening hours and
maintain a northerly direction. Once the system departs these
winds will also weaken and become mainly light but still
northerly. Tuesday will see the winds shift to the S and may cause
light showers that impact the panhandles although conditions are
expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                25  54  30  55 /  10  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  20  49  23  53 /  10   0  10  20
Boise City OK              17  46  24  52 /   0  10  10  10
Borger TX                  25  55  32  58 /   0  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              24  56  30  58 /  10  10  20  10
Canyon TX                  25  56  30  58 /  10  10  20  10
Clarendon TX               28  55  31  54 /  10  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 19  49  25  54 /  10  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  18  49  25  53 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                25  57  30  59 /  10  20  20  10
Lipscomb TX                24  52  27  53 /  10   0  10  20
Pampa TX                   25  53  30  54 /   0  10  20  20
Shamrock TX                28  55  30  53 /   0  10  20  20
Wellington TX              30  56  32  55 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ001>004-006>008-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...98


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