Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 240851
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
351 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
The main story for today and tonight is windy conditions combined
with critical fire weather conditions expected this afternoon.
This all comes from an approaching upper level trough that will be
brining in a cold front late tonight with cooler temperatures
tomorrow.
Today, a leeside surface low is expected to deepen with an
approaching Pacific front helping to bring in drier and windy
conditions across the FA. This Pacific front is expected to
strengthen a dryline with severe thunderstorms possible east of
this line. Only the NAM and NAMNEST have storms firing within the
combined Panhandles this afternoon. All others like the HRRR, RAP,
and GFS have storms not firing until the dryline is mixed well
into western Oklahoma. Confidence is much higher for this scenario
as is a regular case for this FA. Have left some mention of PoPs
in the far eastern combined Panhandles late this afternoon but
limited them to slight chance. The main concern for today will be
sustained winds in the 30 to 40 mph range and wind gusts topping
out around 65 mph. A 70 mph gust cannot be ruled out. However, the
more consistent gusts are expected to be between 60 and 65 mph
for the Texas Panhandle. The Oklahoma Panhandle should see more
gusts around the 52 to 58 mph range with a maybe a rogue 59 to 62
mph gust possible.
With riding overhead, the central to eastern combined Panhandles
are expected to see afternoon temperatures topping out well into
the 70s this afternoon. The western zones will find themselves
behind the Pacific front for a much longer time today with
afternoon highs topping out in the upper 60s to maybe lower 70s.
The warm temperatures combined with the drier air mixing to the
surface will help surface RH bottom out in the 15 to 20 percent
range which, combined with the high winds, will create critical
fire weather conditions for most of the day today.
As the surface low shifts east later tonight, a Canadian cold front
on the backside of the low will be able to slip south into the
combined Panhandles. Overnight temperatures may only drop to below
freezing for the northwestern half of the FA tonight, but CAA
will help the entire combined Panhandles fall below freezing
tomorrow night. As the mid to upper low skirts along the OK
Panhandle tonight some wrap around moisture may bring some snow
showers to northern portions of the combined Panhandles early
tomorrow. Central to southern portions of the combined Panhandles
may get dry slotted with very minimal if any precipitation.
Chances for one inch of snow have come up for the western Oklahoma
Panhandle to around 70 percent for the 24 hour period between 7
PM tonight and 7 PM tomorrow night with best chances for
accumulating snow between 1 AM and 1 PM Monday. The mid to upper
storm system should exit the area tomorrow night but colder air
will be in place for all of the FA allowing for an overnight
hard freeze across the area.
36
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
The next upper level shortwave trof is progged to track across the
region later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon and
may bring the next chance for precipitation to parts of the area,
with generally light amounts expected. This second storm system
should be east and southeast of the area by late Wednesday
afternoon, with any precipitation quickly ending during that time.
Dry weather along with temperatures warming to above and even well
above normal values for late March is then anticipated for Thursday
through Saturday. In addition, southwest winds will likely increase
again during this time period as a leeside surface trof redevelops
in response to another potential upper level storm system forecast
to enter the western states late this week. Elevated to possibly
critical fire weather conditions may develop on one or more days
from Thursday through Saturday if the overall predicted pattern
verifies. Medium range models are in reasonable agreement with the
above scenario and were accepted.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
The main story for this period will be high winds with gusts
potentially reaching 55 kts at times. Outside of blowing dusts
causing artificial CIGs, potentially creating MVFR CIGs, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail. Some reduced VIS will be
possible from the blowing dust as well. Winds are expected to pick
up by 17Z and not reside until about 03Z Monday.
36
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Sun Mar 24 2024
Critical fire weather conditions are still expected today with
RFTIs primarily driven by the wind. A good portion of the
afternoon will see sustained WSW winds around 35 to 45 mph with
gusts as high as 65 mph. By noon RFTIs of 4 will show up in the
west and remain consistent at or above 4 into the late evening
hours due to the winds. Some areas could end up seeing total RFTIs
max out around 5 and 6, depending on how fast dry air moves in
and if the RH values can over achieve and drop below 15 percent. A
Canadian cold front will drop in from the north bringing a major
wind shift with north winds the 20 to 30 mph range behind the
front. This front may not reach the Oklahoma Panhandle until
closer to 10-11 PM tonight.
36
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 72 34 38 25 / 0 10 30 0
Beaver OK 76 29 34 20 / 30 20 40 0
Boise City OK 68 26 33 18 / 10 80 60 0
Borger TX 77 35 40 25 / 10 20 40 0
Boys Ranch TX 72 33 39 24 / 0 20 40 10
Canyon TX 71 34 40 25 / 0 0 20 0
Clarendon TX 75 38 45 29 / 10 0 10 0
Dalhart TX 68 27 35 20 / 0 40 50 10
Guymon OK 74 27 33 18 / 10 60 60 0
Hereford TX 71 34 42 25 / 10 10 20 10
Lipscomb TX 75 32 39 24 / 30 10 20 0
Pampa TX 75 34 39 25 / 10 10 30 0
Shamrock TX 77 37 47 28 / 20 0 10 0
Wellington TX 77 41 50 30 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ001>020-317.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ001>003.
High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...36