892
FXUS64 KAMA 030543 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1243 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For tonight, the atmosphere has stabilized somewhat behind the
latest cold frontal passage which has moved through the forecast
area. Numerical model guidance has reduced pops to non-mentionable
values for tonight, and this seems reasonable.

For Friday through Friday night, a minor upper level shortwave
trof coupled with an approaching cold front and sufficient
moisture will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms.
The best chance for precipitation is expected later Friday night
as the cold front moves southward across the region. A few storms
may have the potential to become severe, mainly Friday evening or
night, with hail and wind the primary hazards.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For Saturday through Sunday afternoon, a couple minor upper level
shortwave trofs embedded in the overall southwest flow aloft are
forecast to move across the region and will bring a continued threat
for showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. Based on
the predicted track of these minor features, the southern and
southeastern Texas Panhandle will likely have the best chance of
receiving precipitation, while the far northwestern zones will
have the overall lowest chance. NBM pops reflect the above scenario
and were utilized in the appropriate grids for Saturday through
Sunday afternoon. Based on the southward progression of the cold
front this weekend, the heaviest QPF amounts have continued to
trend south and southeast of our forecast area as shown in latest
model guidance and WPC QPF forecasts, and this scenario was accepted.

A much stronger upper level low pressure system is then slated to move
across the central and northern Rockies and adjacent plains Monday
into Tuesday. This suggested path offered by medium range models
would prove to be more of a dry, windy, and warm scenario for the
OK and TX Panhandles. Medium range models and associated ensemble
members are in good agreement with that idea and were accepted.
That said, warmer temperatures along with breezy to windy conditions
and dry weather are in the offing for Monday and Tuesday followed
by less wind for Wednesday.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 3 2024

IFR and MVFR cigs will continue to spread northwest to cover all
of the TAF sites overnight. These low cigs will dissipate at DHT
and GUY around mid day, but may take until later in the afternoon
to clear at AMA. Showers and thunderstorms will be isolated
through this TAF cycle, so have not mentioned them in this
forecast. East to southeast winds will be common through this
forecast at 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76  51  69  53 /  30  40  60  80
Beaver OK                  79  49  69  49 /  20  70  30  70
Boise City OK              76  42  66  46 /  30  40  20  50
Borger TX                  80  53  72  54 /  30  50  40  80
Boys Ranch TX              80  50  71  51 /  30  40  40  70
Canyon TX                  77  51  71  52 /  30  40  60  80
Clarendon TX               73  54  71  54 /  30  40  70  90
Dalhart TX                 77  44  67  46 /  30  40  20  60
Guymon OK                  77  45  67  48 /  20  60  20  60
Hereford TX                78  51  72  51 /  30  30  60  80
Lipscomb TX                77  52  70  52 /  20  60  40  80
Pampa TX                   76  52  68  53 /  30  50  50  80
Shamrock TX                74  54  71  54 /  30  50  70  80
Wellington TX              75  56  72  55 /  30  50  80  90

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...15