681
FXUS64 KAMA 051940
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
240 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Starting tonight, many members of the hi-res/global 05/12Z model
and numerical guidance are hinting at some wind headlines for
mainly the far NW Panhandles. Watching a stout H850 jet set up
tonight lee of the Rockies where additional mid level subsidence
on the right entrance region of jet should enhance good mixing
tonight, especially if clouds were to thin out overnight. Thus the
wind headline for tonight highlighting the potential for
sustained winds up to 35 mph, with higher gusts at times, should
favor the far NW Panhandles tonight through just before sunrise
as the main H850 will then exit east of the Panhandles past
sunrise. Lows tonight will be mild as partly cloudy skies and
southerly winds are expected with low temperatures ranging from
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

The timing of the dryline will be key for tomorrow`s active
weather of thunderstorms to the east and critical fire weather
conditions to the west. The majority of the latest 12-18Z data
coming in shows the dryline mixing well into western Oklahoma by
19-21Z Monday afternoon. As we know, with sub par winds on the
backside of past dryline(s) so far this season, in- conjunction
with previous set ups of more pronounced east and southeasterly
sfc flow the day of preventing the dryline to fully mix out to the
east, the model data in the past has not always been fully
accurate. We will have to watch the observational trends closely.
As of this current forecast package, the NAM12 is one of the few
model data sets hinting at a shift of the dryline slightly back to
the west. Although the said minority in all of the data sets at
this point, if the farthest west solution of the dryline were to
materialize by tomorrow afternoon, along with breaking any mid
level cap, the most favorable setup for severe thunderstorm
potential of sfc-6km shear of 30-45 kts, along with SB/MLCAPE of
at least 3000 J/kg, decent H850-700 theta-e advection into the
region ahead of the dryline, along with other parameters, the set
up could be there for severe thunderstorms along and ahead of the
dryline. Again, as of the current forecast, this is in the bottom
20% of probability of occurring with most data sets pushing the
dryline well into western Oklahoma before storms materialize
there, leaving our entire area dry. Will have to watch morning
observations closely tomorrow morning to see where important sfc
and low level parameters materialize.

Back across the western Panhandles, breezy W/SW winds and low RH
values will result in critical fire weather conditions, with more
details in the fire weather section below. Highest confidence
shows the western and central combined Panhandles in the wake of
the dryline by tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures tomorrow will
range from the mid 70s in the west to mid and upper 80s in the
east. Lows tomorrow night will range from the low 40s in the west
to low 50s in the east.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated to critical fire weather condition are expected for
tomorrow, mainly for the western combined Panhandles. Min RH
values will drop to as low as 7 percent by tomorrow afternoon.
Combined with 20 ft winds out of the southwest at 20-30 mph, max
RFTI values will range from 4 to 9 across the area of interest.
With mixed green-up ongoing across portions of the areas of
concern, we still have max ERC values in the 60th to as high as
the 80th percentile values.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Zonal flow will dominate the upper level pattern during the
extended period. Multiple shortwave troughs will transition
through the area as the week progresses. By the weekend, models
forecast an upper level low to close into the region from the
west, but guidance is still uncertain on the exact track it will
take.

Critical fire weather is possible once again on Tuesday for the
western half of the Panhandles. RFTI values approach values of 7,
but are again mostly RH driven. Wind speeds at the surface will be
between 20-30 mph from the southwest, during the afternoon hours.
RH values may drop below 10% for this afternoon timeframe as well.
Highs at the surface may reside in the 80`s range for the day.

Wednesday onward, a series of surface troughs will traverse
through the area keeping winds generally out of the north and
temperatures near average heading into the weekend. By Saturday
and Sunday, our next system may enter in and introduce a pattern
change. PoPs may return for the CWA, but long term guidance still
diverges when forecasting the system`s track. Therefore, coverage
and QPF is still in question. We have continued to leave NBM
values alone for these reasons.

Rangel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

MVFR/VFR conditions to start the 18Z TAF period at all TAF sites.
Conditions should improve to VFR levels over the next 1-3 hours
and continue until 08-10Z Monday where MVFR cigs may return for
KAMA/KGUY. VFR conditions should return to all TAF sites between
12-15Z and continue to the end of the TAF period. Winds will start
out of the south at 10-15 kts. Winds will then pick up for
KGUY/KDHT after midnight with winds sustained of 20-30 kts with
gusts to near 40 kts at times. Winds after sunrise for all TAF
sites will then be out of the SW at 15-25 kts with higher gusts
at times throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                58  81  47  85 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  58  84  44  86 /  10  20   0   0
Boise City OK              56  76  40  83 /  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  60  85  50  89 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              60  82  45  88 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  81  45  85 /  20   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               58  84  51  85 /  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 55  78  38  84 /  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  57  81  43  86 /  10  10   0   0
Hereford TX                60  81  45  86 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                59  85  49  86 /  10  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   59  83  49  85 /  10  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                58  87  52  84 /  20  20   0   0
Wellington TX              59  87  52  85 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ001-002-006-
     011.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for TXZ001-002-
     006-007-011-012-016-017-317.

OK...Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM CDT Monday for OKZ001-002.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM CDT Monday for OKZ001-002.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...29