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000
AXNT20 KNHC 171254 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Apr 17 2024

Corrected Gulf of Mexico synopsis

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1025 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola:
A broad surface trough and a pronounced upper-level trough
continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly north of the Greater Antilles. Very heavy downpours have
already fallen in Hispaniola during the past few days, leading to
rivers overflowing their banks and flash flooding. Additional
rainfall is possible today, while drier conditions are likely Thu.
Local residents need to stay up to date with the latest
information from their local weather and emergency management
agencies.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N19W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 23W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...Corrected

The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge off NE Florida
and lower pressures in Mexico result in fresh to locally strong
easterly winds south of 25N and between 89W and 96W. Seas in these
waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate winds and moderate seas
prevail. A few showers are evident in the nearshore waters of
Texas, while generally dry conditions are found in the remaining
waters of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a subtropical ridge located between Bermuda and the
Bahamas and lower pressures in Mexico will support fresh to strong
easterly winds pulsing off the NW Yucatan peninsula and south-
central Gulf during the next several nights. Otherwise, moderate
winds and seas will continue through most of the week. A cold
front may move into the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night, followed by
fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about heavy rainfall in
Hispaniola.

The subtropical ridge centered north of the islands continues to
force fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the lee of Cuba,
Windward Passage and in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
breezes and moderate seas are evident in the remainder of the
central and NW Caribbean and also in the eastern Caribbean.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, a 1021 mb high pressure system centered
northwest of the Bahamas is forcing moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean, pulsing to strong
speeds at night through tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong
winds will also pulse in the Windward Passage and the lee of Cuba
through early Thu, then in the Windward Passage at night through
Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas
can be expected across much of the basin through the forecast
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along 63W, producing scattered
showers between 55W and 64W, mainly north of 22N. A modest
pressure gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 7-10 ft in the area described. The remainder of
the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a
1021 mb high pressure system located near 31N73W. The subtropical
ridge is forcing moderate to locally strong easterly winds and
seas of 5-8 ft south of 28N and west of 63W.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge. The pressure gradient between the 1023 mb high
pressure system near 33N50W and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of
20N. Wave heights in the area described are 7-10 ft, with the
highest seas near 12N48W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a subtropical ridge between Bermuda
and the Bahamas is forcing moderate to locally strong winds west
of 70W. A surface trough analyzed along 63W is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms between 57W and 63W. This
storm activity will continue affecting Hispaniola and Puerto Rico
through early Thu as a weak low pressure forms along it and tracks
northeastward. Rough seas north of the Leeward Islands will
gradually subside over the next few days. Later this week, high
pressure will build over the waters north of about 20N allowing
for generally tranquil marine conditions. A cold front may move
over the waters off NE Florida late Sun night. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms could precede this front.

$$
Delgado