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000
AXNT20 KNHC 110834
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Apr 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Mississippi
to just west of the Yucatan peninsula. The front will continue to
move eastward across the Gulf waters today, shifting SE of the
area by early Fri. Strong to near gale force winds with frequent
gusts to gale force are expected over the north- central to
northeastern Gulf today ahead of the front.

West Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong southerly winds will
offshore of Florida will increase to strong to near gale-force
this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
move off the Florida coast later today. Gales are expected today
and tonight N of 29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W
of the front tonight. Seas will peak near 13 ft later this
afternoon and evening in the area of gale force winds.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at
nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters Atlantic Ocean near Guinea and
continues SW to near 03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to
03S29W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 06N between 11W and 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the
Gale Warning in effect for the Gulf waters.

A cold front extends from Mississippi to just west of the Yucatan
peninsula. Fresh to strong winds prevail east of the front,
reaching near gale force N of 28N. Fresh to strong winds are west
of the front and N of 26N. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W
of the front. Seas of 10-12 ft are found over the northern waters
east of the front to 85W. Seas greater than 8 ft also cover the
waters N of 23N between 84W and 89W, and N of 22N between 91W and
95W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-8 ft generally prevail.

For the forecast, strong winds will prevail on both sides of
the front today, reaching near gale force over the north- central
to northeastern Gulf. The front will move SE of the area by early
Fri morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front
with improving conditions through the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1025 mb high pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N61W.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
Colombian Low is supporting near-gale force winds off the coasts
of Colombia and Venezuela and fresh to strong winds over the
remainder of the central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage. A trough extends inland over the Yucatan peninsula. The
pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
trough is supporting fresh to strong SE winds over the western
Caribbean, including the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh winds
are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 10
ft range in the south central Caribbean and 6 to 8 ft over the
remainder of the central Caribbean waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are
also in the western Caribbean. Seas in the 4 to 7 ft range are
found in the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
south central Caribbean, pulsing to near gale-force at night off
of Colombia the next several nights. Gale force winds are expected
offshore Colombia at night Fri night through Sun night. Fresh to
strong winds in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Gulf of Honduras will prevail today before diminishing. A cold
front will reach the Yucatan Channel tonight, then stall and
weaken over the NW Caribbean late Fri into Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warnings in
effect for the West Atlantic.

High pressure is centered SE of Bermuda near 29N61W. Light to
gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and a cold front across
the Gulf of Mexico is supporting fresh to strong winds off the
coast of Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds are found S of the
high center. Farther east, a cold front enters the waters near
31N33W and extends to near 24N41W where it becomes a dissipating
stationary front/shearline to the northern Lesser Antilles.
Locally strong winds are found N of the front/shearline between
55W and 62W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere S of 20N, with
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft
prevail off the coast of Florida. Seas of 7-10 ft are noted
between 32W and 55W, and S of 25N between 55W and 72W. Elsewhere,
seas are in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high SE of
Bermuda will shift eastward enabling a cold front to move into the
waters off Florida today and tonight. Fresh to strong southerly
winds offshore of Florida and N of the Bahamas will increase to
strong to near gale- force today. Gales are expected today and
tonight N of 29N and E of the front, and briefly N of 30N W of the
front tonight. The front will reach from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas
Fri morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas Sat
morning. The front will then stall and dissipate through the
remainder of the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL