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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220722
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
322 AM EDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear and sunny today, but continued cool weather will remain
over the region. Rain showers return to the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Dry and seasonable weather will finish out the
work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
300 AM Update...

A few clouds across the area in what is a very quiet and cool
night. Temperatures currently range in the 30s across the area,
trending a little warmer than originally thought as it looks
like we are getting some more boundary layer mixing than
guidance suggests. Temps should fall a couple more degrees
before sunrise, bottoming out in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Monday will see clear skies and NW flow as a high pressure
center moves overhead. The main weather feature to watch today
is RH in relation to critical fire weather chances. With very
dry air overhead and surface dewpoints in the teens to low 20s,
RH values should fall into the 20-30% range during the afternoon
hours. Winds will fortunately be light thanks to the center of
the high overhead, keeping critical fire weather conditons at
bay.

Monday night into Tuesday has some model discrepancy in relation
to how fast winds shift to the SW and advect in a warmer
airmass. Current thinking is a wind shift occurs in the mid-
evening hours, with warmer air moving in later in the night.
Overnight lows should fall into the mid 30s across the region,
warming in the Finger Lakes and Mohawk Valley first. Low 40s
should move in here before sunrise.

Tuesday will see quiet weather through most of the day ahead of
an approaching trough. Isobars pile up during the late morning,
increasing SW winds to 12-18mph gusting to 25mph. Strongest
winds will be over the Finger Lakes into the Mohawk Valley.
Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 60s thanks to
strong advection from the SW wind. Rain showers are expected
move into the western counties during the early evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...
Main feature of note this period will be a frontal system
passing through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with a
batch of rain followed by falling temperatures.

Clouds will increasing Tuesday, but will take some time for
south-southwesterly winds to bring in moisture to the lower-mid
levels, well ahead of an approaching cold front. Confidence has
increased that any actual rain will hold off during the day due
to the amount of dry air in the boundary layer. With warmer
temperatures, and dewpoints likely ending up on the low side of
model guidance, we are figuring on relative humidity still
managing to dip well into the 30s percent range. This along with
winds increasing to sustained 10-20 mph may make things a little
more sensitive in terms of fire weather. That said, both wind
and humidity values will be marginal at worst; both factors not
eclipsing critical levels. Highs Tuesday will be upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Pre-frontal trough will advance into the area Tuesday night,
followed by the front itself early Wednesday, with rain. Non-
diurnal temperatures are figured for Wednesday, with models now
agreeing upon a progressive timing which will result in post-
frontal cold air advection through the day. Generally speaking
precipitation type will be all rain with this system, but on the
back side lingering showers could mix with a negligible amount
of wet snow in the higher terrain before ending fairly quickly
midday-early afternoon Wednesday. We are not expecting rain
amounts to be a problem; generally a quarter to half inch total
though a few spots roughly along the NY Thruway counties could
get slightly more than that.

After lows of 40s Tuesday night, temperatures basically go
nowhere Twin Tiers northward with highs of 40s, yet still
managing lower 50s in Wyoming Valley to Southern Catskills.
Northwesterly winds gusting into 25-35 mph range will make it
feel fairly raw Wednesday afternoon. The sky will clear out
Wednesday night, with lows of 20s-lower 30s. Indeed we will only
just be entering the final week of April, so temperatures like
that while chilly are not unusual.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 PM Update...
Though quiet late in the workweek, an approaching warm front is
expected to result in eventually wet conditions over the
weekend.

Dry weather is forecast as high pressure passes Thursday into
Friday. Northwest winds and cooler temperatures are still
anticipated as the high pressure builds in Thursday, followed by
a near calm and cool night with lows of mid 20s-lower 30s. We
get into return flow on the back side of the high Friday,
allowing temperatures to quickly moderate into upper 50s-lower
60s with full sunshine.

A warm frontal zone, extending from a low over the Upper
Midwest, will advance into the region Saturday. This will bring
an increasing likelihood for rain especially later Saturday into
Saturday night, though at this time it does not appear to be an
excessive amount since the front is projected to move right
along instead of stalling. We can thus expect a further boost of
temperatures during the second half of the weekend as we get
into the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the TAF
period. High pressure centered overhead brings mostly clear
skies and light WNW winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers.

Thursday through Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...JTC