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000
FXUS61 KBGM 191052
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
652 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier yet cloudy this morning before another front
brings showers this afternoon and evening. Turning breezy and cooler
for the weekend with some rain or even snow showers possible
Saturday afternoon and evening. A dry stretch of weather is finally
expected Sunday through Tuesday, with seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

645 AM Update

No significant changes were made with this update. Minor tweaks
to winds and sky cover...as expected it is starting off overcast
across the region.

420 AM Update

Starting off overcast this morning for much of the area, with some
patchy fog around as well. There could be a few breaks in the clouds
at times by mid-morning. Otherwise, the next frontal boundary
quickly moves into the area from the west by midday, with a narrow
band of rain advancing through NE PA and CNY during the afternoon
hours. The rain should reach I-81 by early afternoon, and the
Catskills/Mohawk Valley by around 3-5 PM. Rainfall amounts with this
front are light; generally up to around a tenth of an inch for CNY
south of I-90 and all of NE PA...slightly higher totals up to a
quarter inch are forecast over northern Oneida county where the
southerly flow upslopes into the Tug Hill plateau. South winds
increase out ahead of the front, becoming breezy at 8-15 mph, with
gusts up to 25 mph. This southerly flow will allow temperatures to
reach 55 to 65, despite the clouds and showers around.

Showers continue this evening and into the overnight as the front
slows down over the area. The front and the associated rain moves
east of Binghamton by around 2 AM Saturday, the out of the CWA by
around daybreak Saturday. Skies remain overcast to mostly cloudy all
night...with a line of clearing just making it into the Finger Lakes
and west-central souther tier of NY by daybreak (6AM Saturday).
Winds shift west-northwest behind the front, diminishing to around 10
mph. Seasonably cool, with lows 35 to 45 over the region.

The previous front exits the Poconos and Catskills by around 6-8AM
Saturday morning, with a period of sunny skies expected back across
most of Central NY and NE PA during the morning hours. A secondary,
rather potent upper level shortwave races in the Central Great
Lakes into our forecast area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures aloft
fall from near 0C, to -5C at 850mb by Saturday evening as the trough
swings into the area. Initially dry, stable and mainly sunny skies
in the morning will quickly fade. As modest surface heating takes
place low level (0-2km) lapse rates rise rapidly to around 10C/KM,
MUCAPE reaches 75-150 J/kg and low to mid level moisture increases
as the disturbances rolls into Central NY. This will bring a case of
self-destructive sunshine...as surface temperatures rise and lapse
rates steepen strato-cumulus clouds will quickly blossom over the
area by midday and into the afternoon hours. There will be enough
instability, moisture and forcing for scattered showers to
develop...mainly from the Twin Tiers north into the NY Thruway
corridor. With cold air advection bringing falling temperatures
aloft the showers can be in the form of rain, graupel, small hail
and perhaps even snow flakes by early evening, as freezing levels
fall to between 1000-2000 ft agl. Highs early Saturday afternoon
only reach 45-55 across CNY, with 50s for NE PA, except around 60 in
the Wyoming Valley and along the Delaware river. These temperatures
will fall by afternoon, as clouds increase, showers develop and it
becomes colder aloft...925mb temperatures reach 0 to -2C by sunset
over CNY. West winds winds be breezy, at 15 to 25 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
300 AM Update...

A very large scale upper level trough centered over the Hudson
Bay, combined with a low level high pressure system building
into the region from the west will be the main weather drivers
for this period.

NW flow over the region will advect in colder than normal
temperatures Saturday night, with lows falling into the upper
20s to mid 30s across the region. High pressure at the surface
will suppress lake effect cloud and shower development, bringing
mostly clear skies overnight.

The cold air regime remains overhead Sunday, with continued NW
flow keeping afternoon highs only in the upper 40s to low 50s
across much of the region. Winds are expected to pick up Sunday
afternoon across NY as a cold front moves into the area from the
north, blowing out of the west at 12-17mph with gusts up to
25mph. The atmosphere will be dry so precipitation is not
expected with this frontal passage.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move into the
region Sunday night, keeping temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 30s across the region.

Cold air remains across most of the region Monday as the trough
stubbornly hangs around. A surface high and associated ridge
will build into the region during the afternoon hours, but not
quick enough to allow warmer air to move into NY. Temperatures
Monday will be in the upper 40s to low mid 50s across NY, with
colder temperatures up north. NEPA will see more influence from
the ridge, pushing afternoon highs into the upper 50s. The
center of the high will move over the region Monday night, which
should allow for radiational cooling to drop temps into the low
to mid 30s, even with warmer air aloft building into the
region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update

The next storm system is expected to move into the region
sometime Tuesday evening to Wednesday morning. Guidance is
still a little off on the timing but it does agree that a
trough will dig into the Great Lakes region, generating a
surface low that will pass north of us and push a cold front and
rain showers into the region Wednesday. A secondary shortwave
will fill in behind this front as the overall trough pattern
rotates from positively to negatively tilted. This brings a
reinforcing shot of cold air into the region Wednesday night
and Thursday. A rain/snow mix will be possible across the NE
portion of the CWA as light showers hang around. With the
center of the upper trough overhead Thursday, temps will still
be cold and lingering rain/snow showers cannot be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
645 AM Update

MVFR to MVFR Fuel Alternate restrictions currently at RME, SYR,
ELM and AVP. BGM is LIFR, with below airport minimum CIGs at
this time, with ITH also IFR.

BGM will slowly improve out of LIFR, to IFR by mid-morning
(14z) then fuel alt, and just MVFR CIGs for the early afternoon.
The same gradual trend for improvement will occur at the rest of
our taf sites as well, with most back to MVFR or low VFR by
16-18z this afternoon. SYR looks to reach VFR for a time late
morning and early afternoon, before the next front moves in
bringing renewed restrictions. Conditions fall back to MVFR
Fuel Alt areawide after about 21-22z today...then even back to
IFR at BGM and AVP expected this evening. ITH and ELM will be
borderline IFR for a short period this evening as well. There
will be occasional periods of light rain or showers in this
timeframe over the region.

Drier air begins working in from the west, with fast rising
CIGs at the end of this TAF period; ELM, ITH, SYR rise to VFR
by 04-06z Saturday...reaching RME, BGM and AVP by 06-10z early
Saturday morning.

Southeast winds increase today, between 8-15 kts with occasional
gusts around 20-25 kts this afternoon. Winds shift southwest,
then westerly behind the front this evening...while also
decreasing back down around 10 kts.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs/VSBYs
possible for CNY terminals in the afternoon with sct`d showers.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

Tuesday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM