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FXUS61 KBTV 282205
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
605 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder will continue into this
evening along a surface cold front. Slightly drier air develops
after midnight, before more showers are possible over northern New
York on Monday. Our next system will impact the region late Monday
night into Tuesday with showers likely. Temperatures will hold in
the 40s to lower 50s tonight and warm into the upper 50s north to
near 70 degrees south on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 557 PM EDT Sunday...Have issued a quick update, mainly to
bring PoPs and sky cover into better agreement with the latest
radar and satellite trends. Skies are cloudy to mostly cloudy
areawide, while showers are most concentrated from the northern
Greens westward into the central St Lawrence Valley. Some of
this activity has been heavy, with up to a quarter of an inch
reported in the past hour in some spots. While CAPE is minimal,
still can`t rule out a stray rumble of thunder or two through
sunset or so, especially over northern NY. This activity will
gradually shift southward this evening, waning gradually as it
does so. Lows will drop into the 40s for most locations.

Previous discussion...Interesting temperature day acrs our cwa
with NY Mesonet site at North Hudson warming to 78F, while Saranac
Mesonet just to the north has stayed in the upper 50s. The impacts
of clouds have created a differential heating type boundary over
Essex County NY into the central CPV this aftn, where sfc based CAPE
per laps has increased to 400-600 J/kg, just enough to support
a few stronger updrafts with crnt line of showers dropping
southeast. Behind this line of showers the atmosphere is rather
stable, but latest HRRR/RAP and NAM solutions continue to show
additional showers redeveloping toward 21z and continuing into
the evening hours along a sfc cold frnt. This boundary wl have
limited instability, so mainly anticipating a showers with a few
embedded rumbles thru the evening hours, along with localized
heavy down pours. Supported by pw values of 1.20 to 1.4 inches
acrs our cwa. Boundary and associated forcing and moisture wl
slide just south of our cwa by midnight, with developing
subsidence. Soundings show deep dry layer btwn 850-500mb, while
plenty of moisture is trapped below inversion, supporting the
development of stratus/areas of fog/br possible in deeper
valleys where precip occurred today. Lows range from the
lower/mid 40s to near 50F.

Monday guidance is showing the potential for additional showers over
northern NY, especially in the morning. The areal coverage of
showers is challenging, as both NAM/GFS show good 850 to 700mb
moisture and weak 5h vort riding over building ridge. So feel
qpf/pops might be a tad low, so have bumped chc pops into
northern NY with schc into the CPV. Not anticipating a washout,
but a shower or two is possible with cold frnt lifting back
northward as a warm frnt, especially aloft. Temps are once again
pretty tricky with boundary nearby and clouds impacting values.
Progged 925mb temps range from 4C NEK to 8C southern cwa, so
have highs upper 50s to near 70F. Mid/upper lvl ridge begins to
breakdown on Monday night with approaching boundary and deeper
layer moisture as pw values increase btwn 0.90 and 1.2 by 12z.
Have chc/likely pops aft 06z with temps holding in the upper 30s
NEK to near 50F SLV/CPV. Would not be surprised if temps warm
acrs western dacks into the mid/upper 50s by 12z, given progged
925mb temps near 10C, while values hover just above 0C over the
NEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...A weak surface low and mid-level shortwave
will bring widespread precipitation to the region on Tuesday,
especially Tuesday afternoon. Precipitable water values will near in
exceed an inch, above the 90th percentile for this time of year, as
a plume of moisture is transported from the Gulf of Mexico. Some
rumbles of thunder will be possible with some elevated instability,
although it looks to be pretty limited based on model soundings.
High temperatures during the day on Tuesday will climb into the
upper 50s to mid 60s, with southern portions of the forecast area
getting close to 70. Precipitation will begin to diminish overnight
Tuesday as drier air returns. Fairly mid overnight lows are in store
Tuesday night with linger precipitation and cloud cover, with
temperatures in the 40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Sunday...Upper level ridging will build across the
region, with dry weather expected for the middle of of the week,
although a few showers along the international border cannot be
ruled out as shortwaves round the top of the ridge. Temperatures
will warm throughout the week, with the broad valleys reaching into
the 70s for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will continue to be
on the warm side, with temperatures dropping into the mid 40s to mid
50s. A more unsettled weather pattern with scattered showers and
thunderstorms is expected towards the weekend as an upper low moves
into the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...Radar is showing a line of showers and
embedded thunder quickly moving over northern NY into VT. This
activity looks to impact SLK/BTV/PBG and EFK with brief heavy
down pour, localized wind gust to 25 knots, and a few rumbles of
thunder over the next 1 to 2 hours. Brief MVFR is possible in
the heavier showers. Additional showers are likely this
aftn/evening, before cold front clears our taf sites by 02z,
along with winds shifting from south to north/northwest.
Tonight, soundings indicate developing subsidence inversion
around 04z, which could result in areas of stratus and mvfr to
localized ifr cigs btwn 06z-12z. Greatest probability would be
at MPV/SLK and EFK, but given another two taf packages away,
have not mention in 18z tafs attm. Otherwise, feel a general
trend toward mvfr cigs are likely overnight at most sites with
improving conditions by mid morning Monday. Also, look for
developing northeast winds at SLK/MSS by early Monday morning at
5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Wednesday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Taber
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Taber
SHORT TERM...Kremer
LONG TERM...Kremer
AVIATION...Taber