353
FXUS61 KBTV 030818
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
418 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather persists through Saturday, except over northern New York
where a few light rain showers are possible on Saturday.
Temperatures will be mild, with highs in the 60s and low 70s.
Widespread rainfall returns for the day on Sunday before dry
conditions return to start next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 417 AM EDT Friday...The region is currently between a shortwave
trough digging south over the Atlantic and a ridge building in from
the west. Low clouds are lingering from weak northeasterly flow and
trapped low-level moisture, and they should persist for the rest of
the night. Fog has developed in a few of the sheltered valleys where
clearing has occurred, particularly where it rained yesterday. Due
to the cloud cover and some light winds, temperatures should not
fall much more tonight, so lows will generally be in the 40s. The
ridge will build in during the day today and it will initially clear
out the lingering low clouds and fog. Combined with warm advection
from increasing southerly flow, temperatures will rise into the
upper 60s and low 70s, with the highest temperatures expected in the
St. Lawrence Valley. The sun will be short lived as high clouds
ahead of an occluded front will spread into the region not long
after the low clouds depart, so much of the sun will likely be
filtered. The front will be able to spread a few showers into
northern New York tonight, but it will be weakly forced and falling
apart as it arrives, so precipitation amounts should be under a
tenth of an inch. High pressure situated over Atlantic Canada will
be stubborn and prevent the rain from reaching Vermont. The high
remains in place for Saturday and the day should be be mostly dry,
even over New York, where at most there will be a couple light
showers. The high clouds should remain in place but an absence of
lower clouds should allow temperatures to rise into the 60s across
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...PWATs rise to 2 standard deviations above
normal on Sunday as moisture with Gulf of Mexico origin looks to
overspread the region. Forecast soundings show a lack of surface-
based instability, so showers with brief locally heavy downpours
look to be the main risk. While there could be embedded thunder due
to elevated instability, no organized thunderstorms are anticipated.
It will be quite breezy as well, with persistent southeast winds
gusting 30-35 mph at times. Rainfall chances wise, it does look like
areas east of the Adirondacks should stay dry for most of Saturday.
This is because while a shortwave trough moves eastward from the
Great Lakes, it encounters a stout omega block, and therefore the
best forcing is diverted north of our region on Saturday. While
there should be plenty of cloud cover, have utilized the 75th
percentile of model guidance for Champlain Valley and point east.
Highs should top out right around 70, or a few degrees above
climatological norm for early May across the Champlain Valley.
Expect 60s elsewhere, except 50s in the high terrain. Heading into
Sunday, the omega block finally moves east, allowing the shortwave
trough to approach closer to our CWA albeit in a deamplified state.
This means that PoPs increase to the likely category with scattered
to perhaps numerous showers on Sunday. While there would likely be
widespread wetting rainfall, QPF amounts are quite manageable in the
0.25 to 0.5 inch range. Indeed, the MMEFS shows none of our area
rivers going into action stage.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 323 PM EDT Thursday...The overall weather pattern heading into
the first full week of May can be described as unsettled with no
real significant warm up or impactful weather. Unsurprisingly, the
CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook favors near normal temperatures and
leans towards above normal rainfall. For reference, typical highs
for North Country in early May are in the low to mid 60s, while
average overnight lows are in the mid 30s to low 40s. The upper
level pattern features a positively tilted omega block sandwiched
between an anomalously deep trough across the Rockies/northern Great
Plains and another trough over eastern Quebec/Newfoundland. H5
height anomalies favor a period of widespread showers and
thunderstorms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, as positive H5
height anomalies give way to near normal values. Depending on the
timing of the associated surface cold front, ingredients may exist
for a few stronger storms. But with the potential storms being 5
days away, have largely stuck to a blend of guidance for this time
frame.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12Z Friday...Ceilings have been gradually lowering this
evening and should continue to do so overnight. Confidence is
relatively high that ceilings will reach IFR at BTV while confidence
is lower whether ceilings will reach IFR at PBG and MPV. EFK and SLK
should hold onto their low clouds and fog overnight before it scours
out after daybreak. However, the IFR cloud deck at SLK could briefly
scatter out a couple times overnight. The IFR ceilings at RUT are
expected to remain the entire night but there is lower confidence
there. Ceilings will rise quickly after daybreak and all terminals
should be VFR by late morning. There should only be high clouds
during the day today but the clouds will begin to lower and thicken
tonight, though they should remain VFR for the first part of the
night. Winds are relatively light and are generally northerly but
they should transition to southerly during the day tomorrow. LLWS is
not a concern.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Myskowski
NEAR TERM...Myskowski
SHORT TERM...Chai
LONG TERM...Chai
AVIATION...Myskowski