199
FXUS61 KCLE 081947
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
347 PM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region
late tonight into Thursday. Unsettled weather will persist
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure has allowed for a period of dry weather today. It
was a bit breezy this afternoon with wind gusts around 25 mph,
though expecting these gusts to diminish around sunset tonight.
As the high exits the region tonight a warm front lifts
northeastward and will allow for high level clouds to begin to
filter in tonight. Confidence in shower coverage early tomorrow
morning along the front has decreased since the last forecast
update as frontogenesis and upper level support has backed off
slightly. The better chance for widespread rain showers and
embedded thunder comes late Thursday morning and early afternoon
as the parent low glides east across Northern Ohio. This low
will take its time exiting the region and will keep rain chances
in the forecast through the end of the period. Can`t rule out
some nuisance flooding with any pockets of heavier rainfall
through the end of the week, but overall impacts should be
minimal.

Slightly above normal overnight lows tonight in the mid 50s for
most, upper 40s to lower 50s in Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs
tomorrow will be cooler as they will rise into the upper 50s to
lower 60s. Near normal overnight lows Thursday night in the
mid/upper 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead.
Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on
Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that
trough departs to the east. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure very briefly builds in Friday night before another upper-
level trough and associated surface low move southeast across the
Great Lakes region. Periods of rain showers are expected through the
day Saturday, with mean QPF around 0.25" (some spots lower, other
areas as high as 0.5"). Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated to scattered rain
showers may linger into Saturday night, mainly for the eastern part
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be below normal through the
short term period with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad weak upper-level ridging builds in, although several weak
upper-level shortwaves move across the area through the week,
resulting in low PoPs maintaining through the long term period.
Temperatures gradually warm up through the week with highs in the
low 70s increasing to mid-upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions under weak high pressure will continue through
the first part of the TAF period with mainly clear skies. Our
next system will lift a warm front northeast across terminals
early Thursday morning and into the day Thursday. Cloud cover
will increase ahead of the warm front. Lower confidence in
coverage of rain showers along the warm front but will likely
see MVFR ceilings build in after 12Z/Thu from west to east.
Better chances and coverage for rain showers will occur as the
parent low pressure system glides across Northern Ohio during
the day Thursday. Can`t rule out embedded thunder in these
showers during the day Thursday, though the better instability
looks to remain south of the local area.

Westerly winds with speeds 10-15 knots and gusts to 25+ knots
will persist through sunset tonight. Expecting for higher
westerly winds and gusts to quickly diminish around 00Z this
evening. Winds turn northeasterly overnight tonight with wind
speeds generally between 5-12 knots. Locations along the
lakeshore (TOL/CLE/ERI) may see stronger northeasterly winds
increase to 12-15 knots accompanied by gusts 20-25+ knots
Thursday afternoon.


Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms
Thursday through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern Missouri gradually moves east tonight and
tomorrow across the Ohio Valley, with easterly winds strengthening
to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. As the low moves east
towards the mid-Atlantic region, winds gradually veer to northeast,
north and northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds of up
to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet will result in a small craft
advisory for this period for all of our Lake Erie nearshore waters.

Another weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. There could be periods of stronger winds to 15 knots, but
it`s a low chance of small craft advisory at this point. The wind
and wave forecast looks to be mild Sunday onward and there are are
now strong low of high pressures.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for
     LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 10 AM EDT Friday
     for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...Iverson
MARINE...Saunders