Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 260027 AAA
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
727 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Based in part on recent significant wave heights at buoy 42019,
decided to include the southern offshore waters in the Small Craft
Advisory (issue the updated MWW at 25/2145z). Current Advisory
expires at 06z Tuesday, yet may need to extend if significant wave
heights up to 7ft are projected to extend beyond 06z Tuesday.
Applying local expert system to recent 7-8 ft swell heights and
8-9 second swell periods at buoy 42019 (and corresponding wave
energy distribution) (expect winds to remain generally weak and
thus no significant wind effect on rip current risk), and
expectation that this condition will persist tonight per
WaveWatch, decided to extend the High Risk of rip currents to 12z
Tuesday (issued the updated CFW at 25/2205z). Based on WaveWatch
output, swell heights/periods will decrease after 12z Tuesday,
along with the wind effect decreasing rip current risk (weak to
moderate north flow over the coastal waters until at least early
Tuesday afternoon), expect a Moderate risk of rip currents by
Tuesday afternoon. Updated the SRF to a High risk for tonight and
a Moderate risk for Tuesday (Issued updated SRF at 25/2217z).

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Key Messages:

-Red Flag Warning through 8 PM Tonight

-Small Craft Advisory Conditions Extended through Midnight

-Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Again tonight

-Patch Fog Possible Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning

In the wake of the today`s front, conditions have dried out
tremendously especially out west. Minimum Relative Humidity values
in areas such as Laredo and Cotulla have dropped to around 15%. In
response to the presence of mixing, we also have winds that have
filtered in due to the strong LLJ over the western portions of the
state. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning will continue through this
evening as winds are expected to taper down sometime tonight as a
surface high progresses into the region. Seas will remain agitated
and due to 8-10 second wave periods and wave heights lingering
around 7 feet in the eastern portions of the waters per guidance.
This prompted the extension of the Small Craft Advisory through
midnight and a Moderate to High risk of Rip Currents. Conditions
will begin to improve around midnight tonight and yield light and
variable conditons throughout the CWA. Tuesday will see more mild
and seasonal conditions with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower
80s. By Tuesday/Tuesday night, the atmosphere will remain pretty dry
aloft with moisture beginning to filter back into the lower levels.
Models have hinted at the potential for some patchy fog to develop
along the Southern Coastal Bend (around a 40% chance). Forecasted
soundings back this up as well depicting an decent environment for
radiational fog.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Key Messages:

- Coastal flooding possible Wednesday morning

- Possible elevated Fire conditions Friday (Mean RH 25-30% and
probability of wind gusts over 25 mph 70%)

- Sea fog possible (sfc dewpoint over 69F 70-80%) Monday

Mid Term (Wednesday through Thursday)...Sfc high pressure will
continue for the mid term part of the forecast with dry lower level
air around 850 mb (10-20% on the GFS and 30-50%on the ECMWF), and a
500 mb jet moving through east Texas and the RRQ of the jet grazing
the Victoria Crossroads. However, most of the models show that there
is no precipitation (<10% chance). The ECMWF and the CMC show a 20%
chance. The overall percent chance with the NBM (which uses all of
the models)around 10% in the Victoria Crossroads. With the amount of
dry air in the lower levels, think that looks good, so will keep the
chances low. There is a possibility of coastal flooding with the
northeast wind and the swell periods of 8-9 seconds. Wednesday night
The sky will clear out, and the winds will diminish. Temperatures
will fall with radiational cooling into the upper 40s in the
northern Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads. Thursday with
the high still over the region and some return flow, temperatures
will warm into the mid 80s in the Rio Grande Plains. The Coastal
Bend will be around the mid to upper 70s.

Extended (Thursday night through Monday)...The upper level ridge
begins to build over the center of the country, including Texas, and
the return flow continues through Monday as the sfc ridge continues
to stretch through the Gulf. This will continue the return flow
warming the temperatures into early next week. By Monday the Heat
index will be in the 90s across the forecast area, with Laredo and
Cotulla approaching 100 (heat index). Friday, The Rio Grande Valley
could have elevated fire danger with the wind gusts to 20-25 mph and
the minimum relative humidity fall into the 25-30% range. A return
of sea fog will have to be watched as the NBM has a 70-80% chance
for the dewpoints to be greater than 69F. Currently the water
temperatures are  around 67 to 68F. However, they could warm over
the upcoming week which makes the sea fog forecast a low confidence
forecast. Could see that with the sunshine and the continuing
onshore flow through early next week, that the water temperatures
get into the lower 70s by then.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period. Generally weak to
moderate north/northwest wind this evening, becoming
light/variable later tonight, followed by a transition to moderate
west then northwest wind during the early to mid morning hours
Tuesday, then persistent moderate northwest flow during the
early/mid afternoon hours. Finally, the winds become light and
variable by late afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A moderate to strong north to northwest flow will persist across
the coastal waters through this this evening. Winds are expected
to weaken this evening. Seas however, will be slow to decrease.
Weak to moderate offshore flow will develop tonight, and persist
through Tuesday. A weak to moderate east- northeasterly flow will
continue through mid weekend. Winds will shift around to the
southeast through the day Thursday and continue through the
weekend. Winds may increase to moderate to occasionally strong
levels at times this weekend over the offshore waters as a surface
low deepens over the Plains.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 PM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

A Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 8 PM this evening
due to very dry conditions and gusty winds. Winds should decrease
tonight between 7-10 PM effectively ending the threat for Fire
Weather concerns. The minimum relative humidity will remain below
30 percent through the end of the week, but the winds will remain
light on Wednesday and Thursday. However, Friday, the winds will
increase to 15 mph for the afternoon with gusts to 20-25 mph, so
elevated fire conditions are possible (50-60% chance) in the Rio
Grande Plains. Winds diminish to 5-10 mph into next week, so no
elevated fire danger is expected for the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    56  81  57  78 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          51  75  50  76 /   0   0   0  10
Laredo            56  83  55  81 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             53  81  52  80 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          59  78  59  76 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           53  82  53  81 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        55  81  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       63  80  62  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-239.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-239.

     High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ270-275.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WC/87
SHORT TERM...NP
LONG TERM....JSL
AVIATION...WC/87


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