204
FXUS64 KCRP 300711
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
211 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

 Coastal flood and high risk of rip currents continue through
tonight

 Low to medium (15-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday

Quasi-zonal flow is expected today through Wednesday which should
lead to generally quiet weather. Shortwaves will move across the
area today and Wednesday that will combine with the seabreeze
leading to a 15 to 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has included the northwest portions of
South Texas in a Marginal Risk of severe weather for Wednesday in
response to a dryline across west Texas. The best areas for storm
development will remain to the north of our area, so it seems the
most likely that severe storms could move into the northwestern
portions of South Texas from the Hill Country. That being said,
it is possible that instability, moisture, and seabreeze forcing
could lead to stronger storms across the east Wednesday afternoon,
but confidence in this is very low.

Swell heights and periods have remained stubbornly elevated which
leads to a continued threat of coastal flooding and high risk of
rip currents. Once again, the P-ETSS keeps forecast tidal values
at around 1.7 ft MSL for both today and Wednesday`s high tide
cycles. Confidence is high for minor coastal flooding today, but
is low to moderate for Wednesday as swell periods are forecast to
diminish. We will need to keep watch on the wave heights and swell
periods to determine the risk for Wednesday. These conditions
will also lead to a continued risk of high rip currents. This will
be especially noticeable in any areas of egress from the
intracoastal waters as the waters from minor coastal flooding find
their way back to the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Key Messages:

 Low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday

 Minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts daily

Not much change from the previous forecast as an unsettled weather
pattern over Texas continues through this week. A series of
shortwave disturbances combined with well above normal moisture
(PWATs ~ 1.75") and the afternoon seabreeze will allow for a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday over
South Texas. The cold front and associated mid-level PVA on Friday
has trended further north, leading to a reduction in surface forcing
(especially in the GEFS) and therefore a reduction in PoPs slightly
from the previous forecast. The ECENS is the wetter solution at a 50-
80% probability of Total QPF over 1.0" across the northern Coastal
Plains through Sunday, whereas the GEFS probs of Total QPF over 1.0"
is only 10-30%. Models are in good agreement that the focus of
greatest rainfall will be north of our CWA, but greater uncertainty
exists on how far south convection will stretch.

Heat will be our primary threat through the long term with high
temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s and lows only dropping into
the 70s. We could see highs around 100 over the Rio Grande Plains
early next week. The WPC HeatRisk conveys a minor to moderate risk
of heat-related impacts across all of South Texas every day through
this weekend. This level of heat affects individuals sensitive to
heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. Please remember to drink plenty of water and take
frequent breaks if exposed outdoors for a prolonged amount of time.
Additional heat safety can be found at: weather.gov/safety/heat

Last but not least, moderate onshore winds and swell periods nearing
8 seconds on Thursday may lead to an increased risk of rip currents.
Although the astronomical tide is lowering through the week, we`ll
need to closely monitor our minor coastal flooding threat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions this evening will become
predominantly MVFR as clouds continue to spread across S TX
overnight. Brief periods of IFR CIGs will be possible at times.
Light patchy fog will also lead to periods of MVFR VSBYs, mainly
after midnight. VFR conditions are expected to resume by mid
morning Tuesday. Isolated to scattered convection is expected to
begin along the coast Tuesday morning and shift inland along the
sea breeze through Tuesday afternoon. Most locations will remain
dry, but did include PROB30 for TSRA`s for CRP, ALI and VCT.
Gusty easterly winds along the coast this evening will continue to
decrease overnight and become more southeast through the TAF
period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Wednesday.
There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. Moderate onshore flow continues through
Thursday night before diminishing to weak to moderate Friday, then
persisting through the weekend. There is a low 10 to 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  74  85  75 /  30  10  20  10
Victoria          86  72  85  74 /  30  10  30  20
Laredo            95  76  93  76 /   0  10  20  20
Alice             89  73  88  75 /  30  10  30  10
Rockport          84  74  82  75 /  30  10  20  10
Cotulla           94  76  91  75 /   0  10  40  30
Kingsville        87  73  87  75 /  30  10  30  10
Navy Corpus       84  76  81  76 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-
     342>347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....EMF/94
AVIATION...TE