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000
FXUS61 KCTP 150901
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
501 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
-Showers/t-storm linger over the southern tier this morning
-Mild with little to no rainfall expected through Tuesday
-Cooldown through midweek accompanied by periods of rain

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Trailing front sinking slower to the south than most hires
models indicated last night/24hrs ago. This has allowed for
isolated non-svr convection to linger over the southern tier
of CPA early this morning. Expect bulk of showers/t-storms to
be located along and south of the Mason Dixon line through this
afternoon.

Clearing across north central PA has allowed for valley fog
formation. There will be more clouds to start the day south of
I80, but overall it will be a pleasantly warm start to the week
with highs in the mid 60s across the northern mtns to around
80F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

High pressure and low pwat air will bring mainly clear and
cooler conditions tonight into early Tuesday morning. Areas of
frost are possible across the northern tier with lows in the mid
to upper 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Forecast soundings now look much better for dry air mixing/lower
dewpoints on Tuesday. Another pleasantly mild day for mid April
with highs in the low 60s-70s.

High pressure will retreat into New England on Wednesday while
low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. A cold air damming
(CAD) pattern is forecast to set up over central PA and will be
enhanced by periods of rain associated with a warm front. The
main change for this period was to reduce maxT vs. NBM which has
started to level up the CAD signature.

Projected highs struggle to hit 60F across the northeast 1/2 of
the CWA. We were also not as bullish for thunder/showers given
the anticipated strong low level stability (opted for rain vs.
showers). 24hr rainfall amounts ending 12Z Thu are btwn 0.25 to
0.60 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Seasonably cool and unsettled weather will be main storyline for
the extended period. A series of moisture-starved cold fronts
will usher in cooler temperatures and some scattered rain
showers each day through the weekend. This week will hasten the
arrival of spring with ripe conditions for green up across much
of the Commonwealth. It might be time to crank up the lawn
mowers if you have not yet had to do so.

The wind direction will be a useful proxy for weather conditions
and trends this week. Southeast flow on Thursday morning will
mean cool/damp/cloudy conditions for much of the day. By Friday,
winds shift around to the south and southwest, helping moderate
temperatures into the 60s areawide. After a cold front sweeps
through Friday night, winds shift to come out of the west on
Saturday. Westerly winds will keep temperatures seasonable and
steady. By Sunday, winds will have shifted to come out of the
northwest, which means colder air will be moving into the region
as high pressure builds in.

Main concern for the extended period will be the potential for
frost/freeze conditions later this weekend and into next week. A
sprawling area of high pressure is progged to settle somewhere
in the Central part of the US. It`s proximity to Pennsylvania
will dictate overnight wind speeds and air temperatures. Stay
tuned for updates as confidence increases!

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have weakened and moved south of the
area, paving the way for prevailing VFR conditions and quiet
weather for the next 24 to 48 hours. Owing to clearing skies and
today`s rainfall, valley fog has developed across much of
northern central PA this morning. As the clouds continue to move
southeast, would not be surprised to see this fog become more
widespread. Low confidence in if it will affect airfields, but
most likely locations for concerns are UNV, IPT, and AOO.

Scattered cumulus will develop on Monday afternoon and
northwest winds could occasionally gust to 20mph. Calm winds
overnight could result in some frost/icing concerns across the
northern tier by Tuesday morning.

Outlook...
Tue...Predominantly VFR.

Tue PM...Thickening clouds, light rain and possible
restrictions developing.

Wed-Fri...Periods of SHRA with brief restrictions expected. TSRA
possible, but overcast skies/southeast flow should limit
thunderstorm potential somewhat.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff