Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 271720
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Canoe Creek RxB...DCNR State Parks Resources Management
National Weather Service State College PA
120 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 EDT on March 27.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Mostly dry weather is expected this afternoon, though a stray
light rain shower cannot be ruled out. Light southerly winds will
gradually shift to the west and then northwest this evening after
a cold front moves through.

Drier air will move into the area tonight with minimum RH values
on Thursday and Friday afternoon dropping near 30 percent. Gusty
northwest winds on Friday will add to the risk of wildfire spread.
Coordination with the Bureau of Forestry indicates the fuels are
not yet dry enough to create issues on Friday, but we will
continue to monitor the situation in the next couple of days.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (65-75 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 62.
Min Humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph.
Mixing Height.......2600 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................24 to 25.

TIME (EDT)          2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  63  64  66  72
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1
Temp..............  59  60  61  62
RH................  62  60  58  56
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   6
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  12  12  12  12
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2
ADI...............  24  25  25  25
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain
                    showers early in the evening.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 38.
Max Humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming northwest around
                    5 mph overnight.
Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....South 7 to 12 mph shifting to the northwest 7
                    to 13 mph late in the evening.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................5 to 8.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  80  84  87  85  87  83  79  78  74  71  65  60
Weather Cov.......  ISO ISO
Weather Type......  RW  RW
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  59  57  54  52  51  50  49  48  46  45  43  41
RH................  62  67  74  77  80  80  80  77  76  76  79  79
20 FT Wind Dir....  S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  5   5   4   4   3   3   4   5   5   5   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  8   7   7   6   6   7   8   10  10  10  10
Mix Hgt (kft).....  2.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1
Transp Wind Dir...  S   S   S   S   SW  NW  NW  N   NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  12  10  7   7   7   7   7   8   9   12  13  10
LVORI.............  3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
ADI...............  8   8   8   5   5   5   6   6   6   8   8   8
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 53.
Min Humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing Height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................21 to 58.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  59  59  56  56  60  57  55  58  58  54  49  47
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  40  39  38  40  43  46  48  50  51  52  53  52
RH................  79  76  76  67  57  49  42  37  34  33  31  32
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  6   6   6   6   7   7   7   8   8   9   9   10
20 FT Wind Gust...  10  10  11  11  11  11  12  12  13  14  14  14
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.3 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.6
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  W   NW  W   NW
Transp Wind Spd...  12  12  13  13  14  15  15  16  17  17  18  20
LVORI.............  3   3   3   3   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  21  21  21  35  35  35  48  48  48  58  58  58
Haines Index......  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Banghoff
Requested by...Emilee Euker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2408604.0/CTP
.DELDT 03/27/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL eeuker@pa.gov


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