Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
377 FNUS28 KWNS 012054 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Wed May 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z Relatively benign fire weather conditions are expected late this week and over the weekend. However, by the end of the weekend and into early next week a strong tough is expected to develop across the western CONUS with strong mid-level flow across the Southwest and lee cyclogenesis in the Plains. This will result in several days of severe weather concern across portions of the southern High Plains. ...D5/Sunday - Southern New Mexico.... Stronger mid-level flow will start to spread east on Sunday as the western CONUS mid-level trough advances east. There is still some uncertainty with timing of this trough and slightly faster timing could lead to Critical fire weather conditions on Sunday. ...D6/Mon-D8/Wed - Eastern New Mexico and vicinity.... Critical fire weather conditions are likely across eastern New Mexico and vicinity Monday/Day6 and Tuesday/Day7 as moderate to strong mid-level flow overspreads the southern High Plains with a deeply mixed airmass and very dry surface conditions expected. These winds will be further supported by the tightening pressure gradient from cyclogenesis in the Plains. Critical fire weather conditions may continue for most of next week to Day 8 and beyond, but there is enough model uncertainty to precede 70% Critical probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 05/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$