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000
FXXX12 KWNP 140031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate (R1/Minor) levels due to an impulsive
M2.4/Sf at 13/0502 UTC from Region 3637 (S11E66, Cro/beta). Multiple
C-class flares were also observed just beyond the SE limb. Slight growth
was observed in Region 3634 (N27W17, Dki/beta). The rest of the spot
groups were relatively stable or slightly decaying.

A CME was observed off the N limb in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at
13/1648 UTC, likely associated with a C5.5 flare at 13/1459 UTC from
Region 3634. Analysis is in progress, however, given its northerly
trajectory, an Earth-directed component is unlikely.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) on 14-16 Apr.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at
normal to moderate levels through 16 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed
averaging around 390 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT with the Bz
component between +4/-3 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are expected to become enhanced on 14 Apr and
continuing through 15 Apr due to the anticipated arrival of CMEs from 11
and 12 Apr, in addition to continued CH HSS influences. Solar wind
parameters are expected to recover to nominal levels on 16 Apr.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to Active levels are expected, with periods of G1 (Minor)
storming likely, beginning late on 14 Apr and continuing through 15 Apr,
due to the passage of CMEs from 11 and 12 Apr, combined with CH HSS
influences. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 16 Apr as
conditions wane.