Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 191731
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1231 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Storm system that brought the variety of wintry precip to the
area yesterday is exiting quickly toward the Mid Atlantic
early this morning. Just a few flurries linger within the
stratus deck, which is clearing from the north as subsidence
builds in. Overall, high pressure will dominate at least
through the upcoming weekend providing a welcomed dry stretch
with moderating temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

High pressure will bring about tranquil and dry conditions, with
clearing skies. Snow melt will initially temper some of the
warming today along the Highway 20 corridor, with readings in
the 40s while elsewhere expect highs mostly in the lower to middle
50s.

Tonight, the center of the high will build into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. Light winds and mainly clear skies
will result in good radiational cooling and chilly lows, with
blend of guidance lows mostly ranging from the mid 20s to around
30 degrees. These temps will be near record lows in a few
locations. Also, patchy fog will be possible overnight mostly
along the Highway 20 corridor with the snow melt moistening the
boundary layer and models depicting a strong/shallow low level
inversion.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

A return to near normal temps and quiet weather look to be the main
weather story in the long term period.  It looks like our green up
should commence with this forecast.  Late in the period, a cold
front is forecast to affect the area. This will likely bring all
rain to the area. There are differences with the timing of the
front and the rain. Temperatures behind this front will remain
near climatological norms. From a sensible weather standpoint,
this looks to become the beginning of our spring weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions will be seen through 06z/20 as high pressure builds
into the Midwest. After 06z/20 clear skies and light winds from
the high is expected to allow shallow fog to develop with KDBQ
likely seeing a period of IFR if not LIFR conditions.
KCID/KMLI/KBRL are forecast to remain VFR but may drop to MVFR
around sunrise.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Latest forecasts for the Cedar River at Conesville continue to
have the river reaching minor flood stage, just above 13 feet, by
mid afternoon Friday. This is driven by routed flow from snowmelt
and QPF. With QPF from the departing system lower than anticipated,
confidence of the river reaching this level is low and thus no
warning has been issued. If later forecasts maintain this crest, a
flood watch may be needed.

Other sites along the Iowa and Cedar Rivers are forecast to rise,
but remain below flood stage over the next week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Record Lows for April 20...

Moline.........25 in 1983
Cedar Rapids...27 in 2013
Dubuque........26 in 1956
Burlington.....28 in 1956

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...McClure
SHORT TERM...McClure
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...McClure
CLIMATE...McClure



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