Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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009
FXUS63 KDVN 191920
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
220 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Rather complex weather scenario ongoing today. Weak surface flow
due to weak synoptic forcing made identifying frontal boundaries
difficult. Thunderstorms from overnight across central MO kept
clouds across the area early this morning. These clouds quickly
cleared out and lead to sufficient warming across the area.
Numerous MCVs were identified on the satellite this afternoon.
One, across central IA, led to the redevelopment of thunderstorms.
This will be one area to watch through the early short term
period. Another area will be NE KS where better flow and
instability will lead to the development of thunderstorms. These
storms could track towards the area later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Now through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Water vapor verified the existence of an H5 wave moving north
through the flow into NE KS and NW MO. This coupled with a MCV
south of DSM lead to showers and storms this afternoon. These
storms will likely move north and expand across a surface
boundary. These storms will likely expand into the far western
zones. Gusty winds and small hail may be possible with these
storms. The threat for severe weather appears low with these
storms.

Latest HRRR runs have come in line with the 12z NAMnest,
suggesting upscale growth into a MCS tonight. While the flow is
weak overall, HIRES guidance suggests that H85 flow may increase
with MCS leading to a favorable environment for organized storms.
If this occurs, then there would be a tornado threat along with
the wind threat from the MCS tonight. Again, with weak forcing,
convection may not occur this way. We will need to watch for
convection forming anywhere in the warm sector.

Tomorrow, weak flow continues across the area. With boundaries
south of the area, thunderstorm development looks likely. Moderate
rain will likely occur across the area. A marginal risk for severe
weather is forecast across the far southeastern CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Monday: Scattered showers are possible as the 500 mb shortwave
that is expected to bring thunderstorms over the region on Sunday
moves to the east. At 12Z Monday, the GFS/ECMWF are in agreement
in moving an energetic longwave trof on shore into southern
California and closing it off over Nevada. An upper level ridge
will build over the midwest in response to this energy moving
onshore. Surface high pressure will also begin to build into the
region from southern Canada, bringing with it pleasant weather.
High temperatures on Monday will be in the 70s, with overnight
lows in the 50s across the north, to around 60 in the south.

Tuesday: Surface high pressure will continue to build into the area
beneath the east side of the upper level ridge axis. This will make
for a dry and warm day with high temperatures expected to be around
80 in the north, with mid 80s over the south. Overnight lows will be
in the 60s.

Wednesday through next Saturday: Longer range models prog the upper
flow aloft to shift to the southwest as and upper ridge shifts east.
Confidence is low in timing a series of weak shortwaves progged to
move through this flow, bringing with them a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day. Humidity levels will be on the rise as a
southerly flow at the surface advects warm and moist air into the
upper Mississippi Valley from the Gulf of Mexico. The combination of
temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints in the 60s will make for muggy
conditions. ..Kuhl..

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT Sat May 19 2018

Good flying conditions are expected through the rest of the day
(00z Sunday) with VFR conditions expected. After 00z chances for
thunder and MVFR conditions increase. Storms should be scattered
in nature and could be strong. Towards the morning tomorrow, most
TAF sites will be close if not IFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Kuhl
AVIATION...Gibbs



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