Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 172313

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
613 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018


Issued at 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

At 2 PM CDT, skies are clearing with weak surface high pressure moving
in with fair skies and cool mid march temperatures in the 40s north
and upper 30s south. The area to remain in between systems with near
to below normal temperatures and dry into late in the upcoming week.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Short term forecast confidence assessment...fair or average with main
concerns cold air drainage tonight with possible areas of fog. If winds
becoming light after midnight some mins may be 3 degrees or more too

Tonight...mostly fair to fair with light winds by late evening. Patchy
to areas of fog are possible mainly in the southern sections. Area mins
are mostly 25 to around 30 degrees south with risk of some lower mins
possible in the northern 1/2 sections.

Sunday...fair to mostly fair with light winds and highs upper 40s to
the middle 50s or near seasonable for late March.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Forecast focus on mainly dry conditions for most of next week with a
strong storm system arriving late in the week into next weekend.

Sunday night through Thursday: The pattern will be dominated by high
pressure to our north forcing the storm track south of the dvn cwa.
For the most part this will be a dry and rather cool period with
highs mainly in the 40s to lower 50s and lows in the mid 20s to mid
30s. Did maintain slight pops in our far south for Monday into
Monday evening per coordination with surrounding offices, but the
models have trended farther south and later shifts may be able to
remove the slight pops.1800/1824 09006KT

Thursday night into next weekend: Low confidence this far out in
regards to timing/intensity and type of precipitation and amounts.
Models indicate a decent storm system arriving in the Midwest with a
nice moisture transport northward out of the western Gulf. Looks
cold enough for snow on the leading edge of the strong warm air
advection, then changing to rain and possible thunderstorms,
followed by snow at the back end of the storm system. However, there
are big discrepancies on the timing and thermal profile of the
atmosphere. The ECMWF is stronger with the cyclone and also much
colder behind the system compared to the GFS. Stay tuned!


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure moving into the region will provide mostly clear
skies and light winds tonight through Sunday. Lingering low level
moisture over southeast Iowa and west central Illinois will create
favorable conditions for fog formation tonight into early Sunday
morning. The new forecasts include a transition to IFR, 2SM to
3SM visibilities, at CID, MLI and BRL. Conditions could
potentially go much lower lower, with some model guidance
suggesting visibilities below one quarter mile toward morning.
Confidence was not high enough to go that low at this time, but
trend trends will be monitored closely for possible updates this




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