000
FXUS63 KDVN 130904
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
404 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very pleasant and warm weekend is on tap across the area,
  with high temperatures warming well above seasonal averages

- An active weather pattern returns Monday night through at
  least Tuesday night, with potential for severe weather on
  Tuesday

- More seasonal temperatures move in by mid-week as the Tuesday
  system departs, with a few chilly nights ahead by the end of
  the week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the weekend (yay, you made
it!), and it looks like a fantastic one, with lots of sunshine
and even summer-like temperatures. Early this morning, a surface
high pressure ridge axis is just beginning to sweep through the
area by 3 AM, bringing light and variable winds across the
area. After it passes the area later this morning, southerly
return flow will develop and strengthen. We aren`t expecting
winds to be quite as strong as they were yesterday, with gusts
in the 15 to 25 mph range. However, the southerly flow will
support warm air advection, leading to rapidly warming
temperatures. Expect high temperatures today in the lower 70s
northeast to the upper 70s southwest. It`s possible that some
isolated places could reach 80 degrees today across our
southwest!

As we head into tonight, we are watching a weak mid-level shortwave
impulse to move through the area, but NAM/GFS/HRRR/RAP model
soundings all indicate very dry air in the lowest 15,000 ft of the
atmosphere, so only some high clouds will pass through our southern
areas late this afternoon through tonight. By daytime Sunday, the
clouds should move out by then, and yet another pleasant day is on
tap for Sunday, with temperatures well above average once again,
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Temperatures for Sunday will feel
more like early June than mid-April!

Another interesting note is the temperatures tonight into Sunday
morning will stay relatively warm, as well, with lows in the middle
50s to near 60. While we are not expecting record high temperatures
this weekend, a record warm low temperature is possible for Moline,
as the forecast low temperatures is 61, and the current record warm
low is 60 degrees, set back in 2006.

Make sure to get out and enjoy the weekend!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

The latest global and model ensembles indicate that Monday will
start off similar to Sunday - lots of sunshine and very warm
temperatures. Highs Monday will once again warm to the middle 70s to
lower 80s for most locations. However, Monday night is when things
turn more active thanks to a warm frontal zone lifting northward
ahead of an approaching area of low pressure. This system will be in
association with a cut-off upper-level low that will slowly
translate across the Four Corners region Sunday and Monday.
Eventually, the surface low should take a track from eastern
Colorado where it will develop via lee cyclogenesis, and
translate northeastward across central Iowa by late Tuesday. A
110+ kt upper-level jet rounding the base of the increasingly
negatively tilted upper-level trough appears to overrun the
warm sector, nosing into our region, as well as a 45 to 55 kt
low-level jet with the terminus into our area. Instability
appears to be its highest along the warm front Monday night,
with MUCAPE values on the order of 500 to 1500 J/kg. Model
soundings appear to indicate the potential for elevated
convection Monday night ahead of the surface low arrival, which
could be capable of large hail. The newest convective outlook
from SPC for Monday has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 out
of 5) for severe weather across our southwestern forecast area
owing to this large hail potential.

Attention then turns to Tuesday as the aforementioned surface low
finally arrives. While instability is progged to not be as high on
Tuesday, the kinematics with the system would still suggest strong
shear in place, with 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes in excess of
50 knots. Additionally, the GFS model indicates clockwise-curved
hodographs in the lower levels, suggesting available streamwise
vorticity. Enhanced theta-e advection should help advect upper
50s to lower 60s dew points into our area Tuesday. With this
said, there remains some uncertainty on how this convective
event will evolve, especially since there is a very broad area
of convective development expected over the central Plains late
Monday into early Tuesday. If this convection could move farther
eastward, it could sap the poleward moisture transport a bit
more, leading to a lesser severe risk for us. At this time, SPC
has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) for our region
on Tuesday, with the possibility of some adjustments noted in
the SPC Day 4-8 discussion as mesoscale details become clearer
as we approach the event. In short, we will have to monitor the
convective activity on Monday to have a better feel on how
things will evolve on Tuesday.

The system will eventually move off to the east during the daylight
hours Wednesday, which could start out rainy in the morning, but
becoming dry in the afternoon and evening hours. Another weak
system could move through our region by Thursday, but otherwise,
the latter half of the week looks to be on the dry side. More
seasonal temperatures return for Thursday through the end of
the week, with highs in the lower to middle 50s. We could be in
store for a few chilly nights by the end of the week, with
overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period, with
light and variable winds early this morning. Southerly winds
will strengthen Saturday in the wake of a passing ridge of
surface high pressure, with gusts between 20 to 25 knots this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schultz
LONG TERM...Schultz
AVIATION...Schultz