000
FXUS63 KDVN 200135
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
835 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning is in effect for a large portion of the
  outlook area from midnight tonight through 8 AM Saturday.

- Additional frost and freeze advisories and warnings will likely be
  needed for the next couple of nights.

- Active pattern keeps wave after wave moving through the area.
  Most of these waves will result in clouds and wind. Rain returns
  to start next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 827 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Expanded the Freeze Warning a few tiers of counties to the
southeast, which now includes the Quad Cities. Clear skies, a
very dry air mass with dewpoints in the 20s to low 30s, and
decreasing WNW winds to 5 - 15 mph will lead to a quick
temperature drop overnight. While frost formation may not occur
(or be very limited due to the steady near surface winds and low
dewpoints), the freeze potential is still there. Thought it was
best to be more aggressive messaging this further to the south,
where updated forecast lows are near 32 F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Breezy cool weather is in place as our area remains on the southern
periphery of a very cold upper trof of weather in the upper Great
Lakes and southern Canada. Surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper
20s, resulting in humidity under 45 percent, and that`s kept any
cumulus at 6000 ft AGL and few in number.

The dry, cold air will allow for lows tonight in the upper 20s to
lower 30s, which will be occurring with a 6 to 12 mph wind.  That
wind will both keep frost formation to a minimum, but also increase
to impact of subfreezing temperatures. A freeze warning will be
issued for much of eastern Iowa, and far northwest Illinois for
tonight into 8 am Saturday.

Saturday, another breezy cool day is expected, with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind chills should remain in the lower to
mid 40s through the day! Blustery!

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Additional frost/freeze potential continues both Saturday and Sunday
nights, with lighter winds supporting more frost formation than last
night or tonight.

Sunday will certainly be a much more pleasant day within the
weekend, as highs reach the lower 60s with lighter winds, and full
sunshine.

Looking ahead to late Monday afternoon through Tuesday, a brief
surge of warm advection will combine with another progressive upper
low arriving from southerly Canada to bring a chance for showers and
a few thunderstorms. This does not look to be a significant rainfall
producer, but rather on the order of a quarter inch or less in most
locations. Highs both days are forecast to reach the lower to mid
60s, despite some cloud cover.

Wednesday appears dry, and a touch cooler behind that system.
Thursday and Friday, Global models suggest a deep upper trof
building into the southwest CONUS. This would support an active
period in the Midwest with showers, thunderstorms, and warmer
weather.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR to prevail into Saturday with steady WNW to NW winds and
continued dry conditions. Stratocumulus clouds are forecast to
develop on Saturday with ceilings of 5000 - 6000 ft AGL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087-088-098.
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
     ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Uttech