Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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000
FXUS63 KDVN 162323
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...00z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

The upper low continues to spin over the great lakes, with
decreasing depth of moisture wrapping around it.  Snow decreased to
flurries by mid morning, now, are down to a few spotty flurries in
the far northeast. Clouds are decreasing, but temperatures are
struggling through the lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Tonight, a straightforward clearing trend and cold night is
forecast. Temperatures will fall to the lower 20s north and west nearer
the ridge, and upper 20s near the Mississippi and east. This sets
the stage for a cool day Tuesday, but far more pleasant with high
pressure overhead and light winds. Highs in the mid 40s to lower
50s will certainly feel pleasant to most outdoors.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Although there will be a warming trend, temperatures will continue
to average below normal through next weekend. Refer to the climate
section for the Climate Prediction Center outlooks.

Attention immediately turns to the storm system arriving late
Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. The overall track is still
in question but another round of wintry weather is on tap for part
of the area that may or may not require headlines.

Tuesday night through Wednesday evening
Assessment...low to medium confidence

First, Tuesday evening will be dry across the entire area.

After midnight, moisture will surge back into the area as forcing
increases from the approaching storm system. Forecast profiles of
the atmosphere indicate there will be a cooling of the atmosphere
from the top down as precipitation begins. This cooling will induce
a change in precipitation type late Tuesday night to a wintry mix.

The model consensus indicates rain would quickly change to freezing
rain north of highway 30 as the atmosphere saturates late Tuesday
night. The strength of the forcing combined with the surge of
moisture suggests the potential for a brief period of thunderstorms
prior to sunrise Wednesday.

On Wednesday, as the atmosphere saturates temperatures will likely
fall during the morning north of I-80. As the atmosphere cools,
freezing rain will change to all snow in the highway 20 corridor
west of Dubuque while a cold rain continues across the rest of the
area.

Wednesday evening rain will change to all snow down to about I-80
before ending.

There is a reasonable probability of some snow accumulation on
grassy and elevated surfaces. The highway 20 corridor will see
minimally a dusting of accumulation. Areas west of Dubuque in the
highway 20 corridor may see accumulations approaching an inch.

Thursday
Assessment...high confidence

Another cold high pressure will start building into the area on
Thursday. Temperatures will average well below normal.

Thursday night on...

Thursday night and Friday
Assessment...high confidence

The model consensus has quiet but cool conditions as high pressure
moves through the Midwest.

Friday night through Saturday evening
Assessment...Low to medium confidence

A weak upper level disturbance will move through the area late
Friday night through Saturday evening. There are differences between
the global models in regards to moisture availability, track, and
timing of the disturbance. As such the model consensus has slight
chance pops for about the southwest half of the area for mainly
rain.

Saturday night through Monday
Assessment...medium to high confidence

The global models indicate the next significant storm system will
pass well south of the area late next weekend. As such the model
consensus has dry conditions for the area late Saturday night
through next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

A mix of MVFR/VFR skies will give way to VFR tonight as weak high
pressure builds across the eastern Great Plains. Breezy
northwesterly winds will subside through this evening, and will
turn more northerly late in the TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Record Lows for April 17...

Moline.........18 in 1875
Cedar Rapids...22 in 1997
Dubuque........16 in 1875
Burlington.....23 in 1907

Week 2...

The Climate Prediction Center 6 to 10 day outlook has a 50
percent chance of below normal temperatures from April 22nd to
April 26th. The 8-14 day outlook is suggesting temperatures near
normal April 24th to 30th.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Speck
CLIMATE...08



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