000
FXUS63 KDVN 101045
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
545 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances of rain tonight into Thursday night. Thunderstorms are
  possible on Thursday. A wide spread in rainfall amounts is
  expect with a few hundredths west of Manchester to Mount
  Pleasant line to 7 tenths near Princeton Illinois.

- Temperatures are to forecast to be above normal through the
  period with the warmest days of the season to date possible
  Saturday through Monday.

- Minor flooding continues along portions of the Rock River but
  water levels continue to go down.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

At 3 AM, high pressure is shifting into northern Illinois.
Temperatures range from 39 degrees at Muscatine to 50 degrees
at Fort Madison. A storm system sits across north Texas early
this morning with a cold front draped from near Dallas
northeastward to Detroit. Rain is moving into southern Kansas
and southwest Missouri.

A closed 500 mb low and its attendant surface low are forecast
to move from northern Texas east northeastward across Arkansas
and into the lower Ohio River by 12 UTC on Thursday. Models have
trended eastward with the track of this storm system from 24
hours ago resulting in a slower progression northward with rain
late this afternoon into tonight. Rain will slow spread
northwestward across the area to as far west as 1 to 2 counties
west of the Mississippi River by 12 UTC on Thursday. Rainfall
amounts will be light with 1 to 2 tenths of an inch possible by
sunrise Thursday.

High temperatures today will be warmer than Tuesday and
generally be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Low
temperatures by Thursday morning will be in the upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Aside from the rain and isolated thunderstorms that are expected
Thursday into Friday, we will remain mostly dry. We will be in a
persistent trough/ridge pattern through the long term, but will
generally be dominated by northwest flow, limiting moisture return.
Temperatures through the long term will remain above normal, with a
cooler temperatures on Thursday and Friday, but we will quickly
rebound this weekend into next week. Temperatures are currently
forecast to increase into the mid to upper 70s by Saturday into
Monday.

Thursday into Thursday night will be our next chance for
rain. This has been messaged well in previous forecast
packages but models have once again shifted eastward in the
track of this system. Currently, the best chances will be
along/east of a line from Dubuque to Fairfield Iowa, with low-
end chances to the west. We are not expecting heavy
precipitation from this system, with ensemble guidance favoring
between 0.25-0.75" (40-60% chance), especially in our southeast
and east. Some guidance is also hinting that areas in our
southeast may see upwards of an inch of rain, but confidence is
low on that. Although, if we continue to trend as we have been
with rain, then we might hit that 1.00" mark. Some embedded
thunder will be possible, but no severe weather is expected.

The weekend will be beautiful, featuring some passing clouds and
temperatures increasing into the 70s throughout. Some in our south
may approach 80! Given clear skies and gusty winds aloft, we will
likely see some mixing, which will lead to a breezy weekend. Next
week, we can expect a continuation of this weather, if not warmer
weather, as strong southerly flow sets up over the region early-mid
week. This will be influenced by a strong wave that is developing
and will possibly bring our next round of showers and storms
throughout the area. While this is a week out, long term guidance
all show this storm, with some differences in timing and storm
track. While it is too soon to discuss too many details, this will
be a timeframe to keep in mind for the potential of strong to severe
storms. Although, plenty can change between now and then, as this is
low confidence. Thus, stay updated on the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 533 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

A storm system will lift into the lower Ohio Valley by 12 UTC on
Thursday. This will spread cirrus into the area through the day
day with clouds ceilings around 10kft developing after 18 UTC
at all TAF sites. This will result in VFR conditions through the
period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cousins
LONG TERM...Gunkel/Schultz
AVIATION...Cousins