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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 220547
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1147 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Dry west to southwest flow aloft will continue throughout the week
with plenty of sun and temperatures warming back above normal. A
couple of Pacific storm systems move in for the latter part of the
week, bringing strong winds, blowing dust and not much else.
Strong winds begin each day from Thursday through Sunday, with
considerable blowing dust and critical fire weather conditions.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Dryline/cold front has pushed west across entire CWA, with brisk
east winds continuing across much of the area. Thus some low
clouds/fog will continue tonight along east slopes of the Sac
Mtns. Satellite does show very slow eastward erosion of the those
clouds and HRRR does show this retreat also, with the low clouds
then returning to the east slopes late tonight. Elsewhere, weak
shortwave in sub-tropical jet over the Baja will spread some
mid/high clouds to the area tonight into Monday morning. This
feature could bring a stray shower to Hudspeth County Monday, but
will leave out of grids for now. Surface winds turn
south/southwest Monday which should flush the last of the
stratus/fog off the east slopes of the Sacs.

Dry southwest flow dominates the area into the weekend. Main
impact comes at the end of the work week as a couple of Pacific
storms move across the area. First storm moves in Thursday across
the Four Corners and southern Colorado; much too far north for any
showers, but this will increase winds Thursday afternoon. Winds
look to remain under advisory criteria, but will bring fire
conditions up to or exceeding Red Flag criteria. Friday is a
tweener day as it will sit in between the exiting low and a new
low coming in from the west. Still breezy Friday but should
(hopefully) drop back below Red Flag conditions. Next storm moves
across well north of the area but again increases winds for both
Saturday and Sunday. Thus, expect Red Flag conditions again both
these days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF
sites with CIG FEW-BKN250. There will be periods of SKC. The winds
will be generally light and variable through 06Z Tuesday across most
the terminals except at KTCS. The winds at this site will become
somewhat breezy (10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts) while out
from the south southwest between 18 and 01Z Tuesday. There will be
no reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&
-KT

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 PM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

The latter half of the week looks to be quite impactful with gusty
winds and critical fire conditions developing. Warming
temperatures the first half of the week will slowly dry fuels out,
while Pacific storms moving north of the area will produce strong
winds Thursday through Sunday. Red Flag conditions possible
Thursday before a brief respite in the strong winds Friday.
However the strong winds return for Saturday and Sunday, likely
bringing back Red Flag conditions. Temperatures will remain above
normal.

Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% Monday, decreasing to 8-12% Tuesday into
the weekend. Mountains 25-35% Monday, decreasing to 10-20% Tuesday
into the weekend. Vent rates good-very good Monday then excellent
Tuesday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  51  83  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            43  76  53  84 /   0  10   0   0
Las Cruces               47  82  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               43  79  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               32  58  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    49  80  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              44  74  49  77 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   46  81  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  82  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       50  81  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                40  81  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             45  83  53  90 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               42  75  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   48  84  54  89 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             46  81  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           48  80  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            42  80  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  83  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 49  81  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                44  78  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  33  73  42  77 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                35  69  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 32  68  38  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  39  74  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                43  78  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                42  79  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             40  76  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   42  77  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    36  83  35  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               34  78  32  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  43  76  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   48  83  51  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  47  82  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           47  83  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               49  79  51  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson