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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 161024
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek Rx...USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
424 AM MDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 MDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
For today, lighter winds are expected with warmer temperatures and
dry conditions persisting. Overnight humidity recovery will be poor
tonight as winds shift northerly. Winds will be modestly breezy
each afternoon through Thursday with dry air and elevated fire
danger expected. Mixing heights and vent rates will increase each
day through Friday as temperatures rebound. For Friday, near
critical fire danger is forecast due to breezy winds and very dry
air.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 7 to 12 mph with gusts to around 24
                    mph shifting to the west 6 to 10 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 18 mph shifting to the west
                    around 14 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (22600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (99400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........39     39     13     4      4      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     43     54     62     66     69
RH..............46     41     27     19     16     13
20 ft wind......N 12   N 12   NW 7   W 6    W 6    W 10
20 ft wind gust.20     20     16     15     15     18
Mix hgt (ft)....500    1500   3600   6600   7400   7400
Transport wind..N 18   N 18   NW 10  NW 10  W 14   W 14
Haines index....4      4      4      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13     23     31     61     89     99
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 10 to 11 mph shifting to the north
                    around 8 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 16 mph shifting to the north
                    around 13 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (80200 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6300 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      2      2      2      5
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............67     58     53     51     50     48
RH..............15     19     24     27     28     30
20 ft wind......W 11   W 11   NW 10  N 8    N 8    N 8
20 ft wind gust.22     22     18     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....5300   500    500    500    500    500
Transport wind..W 16   W 16   NW 14  NW 14  N 13   N 13
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..80     20     7      7      6      6
Ventrate Cat....GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph early in the
                    morning becoming light, then becoming west 8 to
                    12 mph with gusts to around 23 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......7600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 8 mph shifting to the west 9 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (118300
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........8         0         1         3
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............47        58        70        74
RH..............30        22        13        11
20 FT wind......NW 5G12   SW 4G12   SW 8G18   W 12G23
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2000      7200      7600
Transport wind..N 8       N 8       W 9       W 18
Haines index....5         4         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4         10        79        118
Ventrate Cat....POOR      POOR      GOOD      VYGD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Chris Powers
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410979.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ricky.shaw@usda.gov,nmsdc@firenet.gov,ty.oliver@usda.gov