009
FXUS64 KEWX 102326
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Morning mid-level clouds were indicative of some unplanned shower
and storm activity in our eastern and southern counties and that has
come to fruition with some scattered activity continuing in the
east. Northeast winds prevail at the surface with speeds around 10
to 20 mph with some slightly higher gusts. Southwest flow aloft
continues across the region and with some upslope flow on the higher
terrain west of the Rio Grande could induce some scattered showers
and storms in Mexico late this afternoon. Some of this activity
could push east into our Rio Grande counties. The HRRR has backed
off this scenario and lowered PoPs slightly as a result. SPC has
also removed the western counties from the marginal risk as well.
Skies will range from partly to mostly cloudy tonight with lows in
the middle 60s to lower 70s.

For tomorrow, southerly flow returns with weak ascent which may lead
to isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm for the western two-
thirds of the area. Highs will be cooler in the 80s for most
locations. Rain chances will increase into Saturday night and early
Sunday morning as the main support from the approaching shortwave
arrives to the area. Rain chances will be in the 20-50 percent
range. Some elevated rain amounts may be possible with amounts
generally less than 3/4 of an inch. Instability amounts will remain
low and not expecting widespread strong storms outside of a small
chance for Val Verde County where instability is slightly higher.
Lows tomorrow night will be back in the in the middle 60s to lower
70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

An active spring pattern continues with a series of upper level
systems pivoting from the Desert Southwest through the Central
Plains in the coming week. Additionally, rising humidity and
returning above average warmth will be expected with prevailing
south to southeasterly winds becoming more common within the
forecast. The first period for good rain and storm chances over
South-Central Texas is expected Sunday into Sunday night with
forcing from the first upper level low to the north. Additional
shower and storm activity is then possible Monday afternoon as a
front slides across the region. Tuesday should be a reprieve in
between systems with what looks like a rain free forecast and
slightly lower humidity levels. Moisture levels return and the
increase in forcing ahead of the next upper level system should
bring increasing rain and storm chances from Wednesday through
Thursday. A cold front then looks to clear out the rain/storm
chances into Friday.

With pooling instability and supportive wind shear profiles over
South-Central Texas through much of the period, the times when
convection does develop, it could become organized. Any storm
activity could also produce locally heavy rainfall. Pending on
precedent conditions and locality, some instances of flooding is
possible. Details, such as placement and timing of convection,
become more clear into and through the short term period with
assessment of the capping inversion, and mesoscale features or
boundaries. Overall, the probability for more than 1 inch of
rainfall through the long term are currently more than 50 to 60
percent across the northern and eastern half of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

TSRA/SHRA moving northeast over Central Texas this evening will have
no impacts on the TAF sites. VFR flying conditions will prevail with
any CIGs above FL050 tonight. CIGs will lower to MVFR out west,
including at KDRT on Saturday, then farther east, including the I-35
sites Saturday evening. Northeasterly winds decreasing to near 7 KTs
this evening will turn easterly at 7 to 14 KTs out west overnight
and elsewhere on Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              67  85  68  81 /   0  10  40  70
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  64  83  67  81 /   0  10  40  70
New Braunfels Muni Airport     67  85  68  85 /   0  10  40  60
Burnet Muni Airport            64  81  66  78 /  20  20  40  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  88  73  92 /  10  20  40  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  82  66  79 /  20  10  40  80
Hondo Muni Airport             69  84  68  87 /  10  20  40  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        65  84  67  83 /   0  10  40  70
La Grange - Fayette Regional   67  84  70  84 /   0  10  30  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  84  69  86 /   0  10  40  50
Stinson Muni Airport           70  84  70  86 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...04