038
FXUS62 KFFC 290531
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
131 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024



...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

 - Dry weather and partly cloudy skies will continue on Monday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are be possible Monday
   night and Tuesday in north Georgia, with more isolated activity
   south of Interstate 20.

Monday through Tuesday:

An upper level ridge and associated surface high off the coast of
the Carolinas will produce quiet and dry weather in Georgia on
Monday. Expect widespread fair weather cumulus in the afternoon,
highs in the lower 80s and southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph.

A weak shortwave trough will tack though the Tennessee Valley and
Appalachians Monday night and Tuesday. As this feature moves through
rain and thunderstorm chances (20-70%) will develop in our region.
Rainfall should be most widespread in the mountains of northern
Georgia, with precipitation becoming much spottier south of
Interstate 20. Modest midlevel lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) ahead
of this system could lead to decent SBCAPE profiles if it weren`t
for projected surface dewpoints being in the upper 50s. Due to this
limited instability potential, any stronger convection should be
limited with this system. If any stronger storms do occur they would
be most probable during peak heating Tuesday afternoon.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week
   into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through
the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering
showers and thunderstorms in the SE Tue evening and again Wed, this
ridge should usher in a couple of days of dry weather. This will
also be the warmest stretch of the long term period, with
temperatures rising well into 80s across most non-mountainous areas.
In fact, some locations will rise above 90 degrees (with the best
chance on Thursday afternoon near and S of Macon). These highs will
will be about 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the
approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the
fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized
thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will
still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 127 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Skies have cleared out for now. Less confident in earlier trends
of MVFR around 10z, but kept in FEW015 for now with SCT cu field
affecting the area through the afternoon and early evening.
Towards the later half of the TAF period seeing indications of
showers beginning to affect the area as early as 13-14z.


//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Low on MVFR.
High on all other elements.

Hernandez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          59  81  58  86 /  10  60  20  10
Atlanta         63  80  61  86 /  30  60  10  10
Blairsville     57  73  54  81 /  50  80  10  10
Cartersville    61  79  58  85 /  50  70  10  10
Columbus        64  84  63  89 /  20  50  10  10
Gainesville     61  78  58  85 /  20  70  10  10
Macon           62  84  62  89 /   0  50  20  10
Rome            62  79  58  86 /  70  70  10  10
Peachtree City  62  81  60  87 /  20  60  10  10
Vidalia         62  86  65  89 /   0  40  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Hernandez