591
FXUS65 KFGZ 060825
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
125 AM MST Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain cool with dry conditions and
breezy afternoons through the rest of the week. Ridging returns over
the weekend with warmer temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The low that brought the very strong winds and
rain/snow to the region has started to move further to the north and
east of the area early this morning. While the center of the low
will be a bit more removed from our area, the pressure gradient
doesn`t fully relax and today will once again be on the breezy side.
While not nearly as strong as they were on Sunday, we can expect
wind gusts around 25-35 mph through this afternoon.

The low pushes to the north, but it starts to cut off and retrograde.
This will allow for some of its energy to rotate through the mid
level flow on Tuesday along with the pressure gradient starting to
tighten up again, With no moisture left to push through, do not
expect any form of showers to develop. However, the winds will
become quite gusty and might near Wind Advisory levels, especially
across portions of northern and eastern Arizona. Wind gusts in the
the 35-45 mph range are possible. Near critical fire weather
conditions are also possible across far eastern Arizona on Tuesday.

The low further retrogrades and sinks to the south. As the low
pushes to the south we should actually see the gradient weaken so
expect lighter winds, more typical spring breeziness, as we go
through the week. Additionally, this low will keep the cooler air in
place across northern Arizona.

The low finally starts to break down and push to the east at the end
of the week. Again, with limited moisture do not expect any showers
to develop, though best chances for a stray, isolated shower would
be over the Four Corners region.

Ridging returns over the weekend with warming temperatures across
the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 06/06Z through Tuesday 07/06Z...Winds will shift
to westerly and decrease overnight behind a cold front, though
some gusts 20-30 kts will still be possible from 0V7-KSOW
eastward. An area of RA/SN northeast of a 0V7-KRQE line with
MVFR/IFR conditions will push east of the state line by 07Z, with
clearing skies and VFR conditions elsewhere. VFR conditions with
west winds 10-20 kts and gusts near 25 kts on Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 07/06Z through Thursday 09/06Z...VFR conditions expected
through the outlook period. West to southwest wind 15-25 kts Tuesday
afternoon, gusting up to 35 kts mainly north of a KFLG-KSOW line.
Northwest wind 10-15 kts gusting near 25 kts Wednesday. A large
prescribed fire project could bring some smoke impacts around KFLG
beginning Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Monday and Tuesday...A slight warming trend will
occur between today and tomorrow. Minimum RH values will quickly
drop, with values ranging from single digits to low 20s each
afternoon. Look for west winds 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph today,
before increasing on Tuesday with gusts 30-40 mph. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions possible, especially on Tuesday in
eastern AZ.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures will drop on Wednesday, but
look for a gradual warming trend through the end of the week.
Minimum RH values will remain in the single digits-20s range each
afternoon, with typical spring-like breezes.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff