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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 180330
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
830 PM MST Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect warm, dry, and breezy conditions to persist
throughout the forecast period. Periods of high-clouds are likely
on Thursday, but otherwise, mostly clear skies should prevail.

&&

.UPDATE...High clouds and light winds are blowing over northern
Arizona this evening. Expect a quiet night with temperatures near
normal. That means morning lows around freezing in the high
country. The current forecast is in good shape and no updates are
needed at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /407 PM MST/...Not much going on out there in regards
to the weather across northern Arizona this afternoon with stable
conditions aloft. This zonal flow across the Southwest should
continue through Thursday resulting in fair weather conditions and
warm temperatures. A weak, shortwave trough looks to pass through
late Thursday and into Friday leading to slightly cooler
temperatures and some mid to upper-level broken clouds.

Taking a look at current visible satellite imagery, you can see
much of our snow pack in the High Country has melted in the last
few weeks with just a bit left above 8000-9000 feet on the Kaibab
Plateau, San Francisco Peaks, and the White Mountains. Other than
for those terrain features, much of the state remains bare of
snow as "green up" takes place. Fire weather concerns at this time
remain low given the high moisture in the vegetation, however,
with the warm, dry, and windy pattern in place through the
weekend...drying out should be enhanced during this time.

Both high and low temperatures are forecast to be 5-10 degrees
above average as we head into next week with mid to upper 90s for
the Phoenix metro area. Rather not advertise Flagstaff`s
temperatures as it will most likely make some Valley people a bit
jealous. Afternoon humidity will also remain low, in the 10 to
15% range across the region.

In regards to the winds over the next few days, expect typical
west-northwest to west-southwest during the day and light easterly
winds, 5 to 10 mph, overnight. At this time, the GEFS, ECMWF Ens,
and NBM do not indicate any particular gusty to strong wind
events (i.e. 35-50 mph) over the next week for northern Arizona.
Your typical afternoon gusts of 15-25 mph with a few up to 30 mph
are what is expected during this time.

Taking a look at the long range forecast, much of the global
models do not suggest any impactful precipitation makers through
the last week of April. Having said that, the overall synoptic
pattern does look to be a bit more active and unsettled during
this time, resulting in the possibility for showers and stronger
winds. Just something to keep in mind as we head into fire season.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 18/00Z through Friday 19/00Z...VFR conditions
and mostly light southwest winds.

OUTLOOK...Friday 19/00Z through Sunday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
and light southwest winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday through Friday...Dry, warm conditions will
continue through Friday. West-southwest winds 10-15 mph with gusts
to 25 mph both days. Afternoon RH values around 10-20% each day.

Saturday through Monday...Dry, breezy and warm. Generally light
westerly winds gusting to 15-20 mph on Saturday and Sunday, with
stronger southwest winds gusting to 25-30 mph on Monday. Afternoon
RH values between 10-20% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Benji/LaGuardia
AVIATION...Benji
FIRE WEATHER...BAK

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff