565
FXUS64 KFWD 040514
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1214 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Overnight through Sunday/

Convection is waning across the region tonight as surface based
inhibition increases. A cluster of showers and a few storms
continue to the south of Waco at this hour, but this activity
should diminish over the next hour or so. The remainder of the
night should be quiet with light winds and humid conditions. Some
patchy fog may develop later tonight into the early morning hours
on Saturday.

The active weather pattern will continue with a cold front
currently across southwest Kansas expected to move through
Oklahoma overnight and approaching North Texas Saturday morning.
Synoptic scale forcing for ascent may be negligible during this
time, but forcing along the front itself may be sufficient for
scattered showers/storms to develop earlier than they did on
Friday. This activity is most likely to occur across our northwest
counties and generally north of I-20 into the early afternoon.
We`ll have some 30-40% PoPs to account for this activity while our
central TX counties will likely remain dry.

It`s a little unclear whether or not the front will actually make
it down into our area through midday with a consensus of the
guidance suggesting that it`ll get hung up to our north in
response to an approaching upstream shortwave. This shortwave is
evident on water vapor imagery approaching northern Baja
California at this hour. Meanwhile, either an outflow boundary or
just a general backing of the low level flow ahead of the front
will likely lead to increased low level moisture convergence
across the I-20 corridor through the afternoon. This will support
isolated/scattered storm development through late afternoon,
especially from the Metroplex westward. Meanwhile, thunderstorms
will increase in coverage across West Texas and become severe near
the intersection of the southward moving front and dryline late
this afternoon. This activity will likely evolve into one or more
clusters of thunderstorms and spread eastward into North Texas
late Saturday night as stronger forcing for ascent from the
aforementioned shortwave overspreads the Southern Plains. While
there will certainly be some potential for severe weather,
especially across our western counties, widespread heavy rainfall
may result in additional flooding issues across parts of the
region. Latest HREF guidance shows a large swath of 2-3 inches of
rain through late Saturday night across our southwest counties,
the majority of which falls in about 3 hours. This may necessitate
a westward expansion of the flood watch. We`ll coordinate this
over the next several hours.

Showers and thunderstorms will overspread much of the region late
Saturday night and continue to move eastward into early Sunday
morning, tapering off from west to east through the day.
Additional thunderstorm development may occur late Sunday
afternoon across our central and southeast counties as the front
stalls in wake of the departing shortwave.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 258 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024/
/Saturday Night Onward/

An active weather pattern will continue Saturday night as a
shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet lifts northeast across
North and Central Texas. Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at
the start of the period across the Big Country, and will spread
east across the region overnight into Sunday morning. A wind and
hail threat may accompany these storms across the western half of
the region Saturday evening, but convection will be weakening
Saturday night while moving into a less favorable environment.
Despite the severity or lack thereof, the presence of a quasi-
stationary surface boundary will maintain a threat for more heavy
rain and flooding. This threat will be highest over Central Texas
where heavy rains have already occurred, and where the front will
most likely be located (and is currently exacerbating the ongoing
flooding across the Brazos Valley and Southeast Texas). A Flood
Watch has hence been issued through around midday Sunday for
those Central Texas Counties who have experienced multiple rounds
of heavy rain over the past several days.

Convection will move out during the morning hours Sunday, making
for an overall decent day with highs mainly in the 70s. There may
be a few rogue showers that pop up in the afternoon but those
should be few and far between. Attention will then turn to a
larger scale upstream trough, which will cross the Rockies Sunday
night, then lift northeast through the Plains on Monday. Most of
the ascent associated with this system will remain to our north,
but we will still likely have isolated dryline-induced convection
Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage may be low due to the
presence of a capping inversion, but we will otherwise have a warm
and unstable environment in place, and any storms which develop
could become severe.

The passing of the shortwave will send a cold front south into
the area Tuesday night. After a quiet Tuesday, the front will
again provide a focus for convection starting Wednesday, as a
longwave trough produces cyclonic flow overhead for the mid to
late week period. Scattered showers and storms should develop in
the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Not all
will receive rain, but just about any of the area could see a
shower or storm. By Friday, the front will have sagged well south
of the I-20 corridor, unfortunately focusing convection across
the saturated Central and Southeast Texas. The front and trough
will both shift southeast of the region on Saturday, providing dry
weather and overall nice conditions in time for Mother`s Day
weekend.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/6Z TAFs/

VFR cigs generally prevail in the wake of convection earlier this
evening but conditions will again deteriorate overnight with MVFR
cigs expected by morning across most of North and Central Texas.
We`ll be watching a front slide southward through the morning
hours into the D10 airspace. This may be sufficient for a few
isolated storms to develop earlier than they did on Friday. Better
storm chances will arrive late Saturday night as another complex
of storms is expected to track across North Texas through the
overnight hours.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    69  80  67  79  68 /  30  40 100  30  20
Waco                65  80  66  78  67 /  40  30 100  40  20
Paris               68  80  65  75  65 /  20  40  70  80  20
Denton              67  80  64  77  66 /  30  40 100  30  20
McKinney            68  80  66  76  67 /  30  40  90  40  20
Dallas              69  82  67  79  68 /  30  40  90  30  20
Terrell             65  80  67  78  67 /  20  40  90  40  20
Corsicana           66  82  68  79  69 /  20  30  90  40  20
Temple              68  81  67  79  68 /  40  30  90  40  20
Mineral Wells       59  79  64  79  67 /  40  40 100  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ135-146>148-160>162-
174-175.

&&

$$