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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200652
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
152 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Weekend/

Winds above the surface are from the southeast as the cool frontal
layer extends up to about 850 mb. Later tonight, strengthening
east-southeast winds above the surface will lead to increasing
warm moist advection and the development of widespread showers.
This activity should start to increase in coverage well after
midnight when strong isentropic ascent becomes maximized along and
north of the I-20 corridor. Steep mid level lapse rates will
initially support some elevated thunderstorms with a sub- severe
hail threat, but this activity will wane through the late morning
hours as the atmosphere becomes increasingly moist. Locally heavy
rainfall may result in some minor flooding issues, especially in
urban areas.

Drivers for widespread showers with scattered storms will in place,
particularly the northern portion of a QLCS arriving across our
southern Central TX counties this afternoon and exiting to the
east early this evening. Marginal risk for an isolated strong to
severe storms appears reasonable here. Otherwise, a good chance
(50%-70%) for 2-3 rounds of persistent rainfall with embedded
convective heavier episodes with WPC mean totals from the predawn
hours this morning through Sunday morning of widespread 1-2", with
isolated heavier amounts in excess of 3" possible generally along
and south of I-30 and east of I-35/35E down into Central Texas. A
few locations (~10%) across eastern Central Texas could receive
4+" of rain through Saturday night. Widespread minor flooding
across these areas is likely, especially low lying areas with localized
potential elsewhere. Isolated flash flooding will be possible as
well, but will forego any Flood Watch at this time. Rivers from
the Brazos River Basin, east to the Trinity/Sabine Basins where
soils from previous recent rainfall events will see the best
chances for at least minor flooding levels being reached, as
saturated soils here will have run off with higher rainfall
rates and quicker responses. The Day 1 Excessive Rainfall forecast
from WPC (widespread Slight Risk) looks very reasonable, especially
east of I-35 where it wouldn`t surprise me if some of this area
was possibly upgraded to a better chance for flooding (upgraded to
a Moderate) the way showers and storms are already blossoming
across Northwest Texas and the northern Big Country at this hour.
This will only increase across most of the area through sunrise
and through tonight.

Continued gusty northeasterly winds and abundant cloud cover/
rainfall will keep diurnal temperature trends very low, with lows
in the 50s across North Texas and lower to mid 60s in Central
Texas only rising a few degrees through the day. Drier air
arriving behind a reinforcing cold front late tonight and early
Sunday will bring some patchy fog and colder low temperatures
between 45 and 55 degrees Sunday morning as this system exits
east of the area and synoptic-scale subsidence takes hold.
Scattered pockets of sunshine/insolation will help temperatures
recover into the lower- mid 60s, with stubborn cloudiness hanging
tough over Central Texas.

05/Marty

Previous Discussion:
/Tonight through Saturday Night/

Relatively cool and cloudy conditions prevail across much of North
and Central Texas this evening with light northerly winds and
temperatures in the 60s. Later Saturday morning into the
afternoon, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will move
across the region aided by weak ascent from a passing
disturbance. While most of the activity will pose nothing more
than a lightning/heavy rain threat, there will be a small portion
of our southern counties that may get into a better warm sector
through the afternoon. There could be a few stronger storms south
of a Waco to Palestine line during this time. In addition,
rainfall rates may become most efficient in this area where PW`s
approach 1.8" through the afternoon. Widespread rainfall amounts
of 1 to 3 inches will be possible .

All of this activity will move east late Saturday night with
rainfall tapering off from west to east and another cool night
expected. Temperatures will drop into the upper 40s for early
Sunday morning.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 315 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Friday/

The weather across North Central Texas will trend a lot more
favorable on Sunday as precipitation clears to the east, mainly
before daybreak. Clearing from north to south will lag the
precipitation clearing by several hours, but we do have confidence
that skies will range from mostly clear in the north to partly
cloudy in the south by early to mid afternoon. North winds will be
a bit breezy, but the previous rain should forgo much wildfire
concern. Highs will generally only range from 60 to 65 degrees,
which is at least 10 degrees below average for the date. The theme
of cooler than average conditions will continue Sunday night into
Monday with lows at daybreak Monday mainly in the 40s with highs
Monday afternoon mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s under partly
cloudy to mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will trend back to average on Monday night into
Tuesday as surface high pressure quickly exits to the east and
southerly low level flow commences. The warming trend will
continue through the midweek with lows in the mid 60s and highs at
least around 80 degrees by Wednesday night into Thursday. Current
long range blended model guidance suggests this warming trend will
continue into at least Friday. A weak disturbance passing well to
the north may get some isolated to widely scattered showers
(cannot rule out a few thunderstorms) going in the warm air
advection regime starting Tuesday night and going through
Thursday. Obviously clouds will be increasing over this time range
as well. NWP guidance still is lacking a strong consensus in
specifics of what will transpire across the forecast area starting
Thursday and going into the weekend as a parade of disturbances
push east from the Western CONUS starting toward the middle of
next week. The loose consensus is that one of these disturbances
will significantly brush north Texas by Friday, although it is
possible tangible impacts could begin a day earlier (and also last
well into the weekend). Needless to say, some severe weather
and/or heavy rain threat could manifest by the end of next week,
although any further details than this will likely have to wait
for better NWP consensus to be reached. SHV / 50

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/06z TAFs/

All DFW D10 airports have now fallen into low MVFR the past hour
or so, though Waco Regional continues above 2 kft likely due to
warmer surface to BL temperatures. All airports will fall into IFR
with increasing convective rains, thus VCTS was maintained with
best window for TSRA and lower VSBYs occurring mid-late morning.
As precipitation wanes and shifts mostly east of the airports this
coming evening (after 00z Sunday), potential for some post-
frontal (-RA/-DZ) may result in brief LIFR/VLIFR later this
evening and overnight.

In addition, current NE winds will increase to between 10-15 kts
with occasional gusts to between 20-25 kts as a secondary FROPA
arrives by mid morning. SHRA/scattered TSRA currently W/NW of
airports will spread east and impact terminals by 12z. Rounds of
precipitation will continue through tonight, though timing windows
are difficult to pin down at this time.

.Extended (beyond 12z Sunday and scope of this TAF set)...

Subsidence is expected behind the departing upper level system
with low level drier air entraining into the D10 from the north
Sunday morning. This will end precipitation and improve flying
conditions across the D10 airspace across the region and all
airports by 18z Sunday.

05/Marty

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    61  50  64  48  71 / 100  90   0   0   0
Waco                64  50  62  45  69 /  90  80   0   0   0
Paris               57  47  63  43  69 /  90  90   0   0   0
Denton              59  47  63  42  71 / 100  80   0   0   0
McKinney            58  48  65  44  70 / 100  90   0   0   0
Dallas              61  50  65  47  71 / 100  90   0   0   0
Terrell             60  49  63  44  69 / 100  90   0   0   0
Corsicana           62  50  63  46  71 / 100  90   0   0   0
Temple              65  50  61  46  69 /  90  90   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       59  47  64  43  71 / 100  70   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$