National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KGGW 120904
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
304 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Temperatures well above normal through the weekend with a few
  isolated convective rain showers and thunderstorms.

- Pattern change with much colder temperatures and precipitation
  by Tuesday, including snowfall potential through midweek.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Temperatures warm quickly into the weekend with the arrival of an
upper level ridge. A Pacific trough and upper level low will dig
unusually far south along the West Coast during the weekend
cutting off most of the moisture feed into the region.  A second
and stronger system dives south from the Gulf of Alaska early next
week and this will bring a pattern change with at least a taste
of winter weather returning. Depending on how much cold air gets
brought into the area and moisture remaining at night, higher
elevations in particular could will see accumulating snow
midweek.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

With the rapid warming over the next few days, and already dry
conditions, fire weather concerns are on the increase. Deep mixing
will contribute to afternoon gusty winds, but will likely not be
widespread enough for critical fire weather conditions.

Confidence is moderate on the evolution of next week`s system,
with still significant range of ensemble solutions with
implications on precipitation placement, timing and amounts. There
is higher confidence in a widespread wetting rain and lower
confidence on any impacts from late season snow accumulation
occurring with the focus currently centered on Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Dry conditions continue for the TAF sites scattered mid-
level clouds.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow