Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
UXUS97 KGJT 261307
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
707 AM MDT Tuesday, March 26, 2024

This forecast is for Tuesday, March 26, 2024:

If the trigger temperature of 41.1 F/5.1 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Excellent
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 976 ft/min (5.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 16079 ft MSL (11240 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 51.0 F/11.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1045 MDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1900 MDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 11948 ft MSL (7109 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Wednesday 03/27.... Excellent

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:06:41 / 19:32:23 MDT
Total possible sunshine........... 12 hr 25 min 42 sec (745 min 42 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:19:32 MDT... 53.24 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 03/26/2024 at 0600 MDT

Freezing level.................. 5576 ft MSL (737 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9734 ft MSL (4895 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11659 ft MSL (6820 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.1
K index......................... +16.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -52.8 -63.0   280   33   17   3.3   1.8  118.6 245.5    60.8      M    M
 45000  -52.1 -61.8   285   40   20   2.9   1.6   93.5 200.3    50.0      M    M
 40000  -53.0 -63.4   295   27   14  -5.5  -3.0   68.6 155.5    37.4      M    M
 38000  -53.7 -64.7   290   32   16  -4.1  -2.3   58.6 137.5    31.8      M    M
 36000  -54.8 -66.6   290   28   14  -5.8  -3.2   48.2 118.8    25.6      M    M
 34000  -57.7 -71.9   300   33   17  -0.3  -0.2   35.6  96.1    17.5      M    M
 32000  -56.6 -69.9   320   33   17   5.2   2.8   28.9  84.0    13.1      M    M
 30000  -52.4 -62.3   325   31   16   4.6   2.5   25.7  78.2    11.2      M    M
 29000  -51.1 -60.0   320   30   16   4.4   2.4   23.4  74.2     9.6      M    M
 28000  -49.7 -57.5   320   32   16   5.1   2.8   21.5  70.6     8.3      M    M
 27000  -48.2 -54.8   310   27   14   4.9   2.7   19.7  67.4     7.0      M    M
 26000  -46.6 -51.9   305   29   15   8.9   4.9   18.0  64.3     5.7      M    M
 25000  -44.3 -47.7   305   27   14   7.5   4.1   17.1  62.8     5.1      M    M
 24000  -41.7 -43.1   295   27   14   9.1   5.0   16.7  62.1     4.9      M    M
 23000  -39.2 -38.6   305   21   11   7.8   4.3   16.2  61.2     4.6      M    M
 22000  -36.9 -34.4   270   20   10   7.7   4.2   15.5  59.9     4.0      M    M
 21000  -34.5 -30.1   280   17    9   7.9   4.3   14.8  58.6     3.5      M    M
 20000  -32.3 -26.1   295   18    9   5.6   3.1   13.9  57.0     2.8      M    M
 19500  -31.5 -24.7   305   19   10   5.7   3.1   13.2  55.7     2.2      M    M
 19000  -30.6 -23.1   310   21   11   5.7   3.1   12.5  54.5     1.6      M    M
 18500  -29.8 -21.6   305   18    9   5.4   3.0   11.8  53.2     1.0      M    M
 18000  -28.7 -19.7   295   15    8   9.0   4.9   11.3  52.3     0.6      M    M
 17500  -27.3 -17.1   290   17    9   9.6   5.3   11.2  52.2     0.5      M    M
 17000  -25.9 -14.6   280   15    7   9.5   5.2   11.2  52.1     0.5      M    M
 16500  -23.9 -11.0   275   14    7   7.0   3.8   11.0  51.7     0.3      M    M
 16000  -22.9  -9.2   280   19   10   6.9   3.8   10.5  50.9    -0.2    958  4.9
 15500  -21.9  -7.4   280   18    9   6.9   3.8   10.0  50.0    -0.6    913  4.6
 15000  -20.8  -5.4   300   15    8   8.5   4.7    9.6  49.3    -1.0    866  4.4
 14500  -19.5  -3.1   300   14    7   8.9   4.9    9.5  49.1    -1.1    811  4.1
 14000  -18.1  -0.6   290   13    7   8.9   4.9    9.4  48.8    -1.2    757  3.8
 13500  -16.8   1.8   290   13    7   9.0   4.9    9.2  48.6    -1.4    702  3.6
 13000  -15.6   3.9   285   13    7   6.5   3.6    9.0  48.2    -1.6    650  3.3
 12500  -14.8   5.4   275   12    6   5.5   3.0    8.3  46.9    -2.3    612  3.1
 12000  -14.0   6.8   280    9    5   5.5   3.0    7.6  45.7    -3.0    573  2.9
 11500  -13.2   8.2   285    9    5   7.9   4.3    7.0  44.5    -3.6    533  2.7
 11000  -11.8  10.8   275    9    5   9.3   5.1    6.9  44.4    -3.7    478  2.4
 10500  -10.5  13.1   270   10    5   7.6   4.2    6.7  44.0    -4.0    426  2.2
 10250  -10.0  14.0   270    9    5   7.8   4.3    6.5  43.8    -4.1    401  2.0
 10000   -9.4  15.1   275    8    4   7.8   4.3    6.4  43.5    -4.3    377  1.9
  9750   -8.8  16.2   275    8    4   7.6   4.2    6.2  43.2    -4.5    352  1.8
  9500   -8.3  17.1   270    8    4   7.3   4.0    6.0  42.9    -4.7    328  1.7
  9250   -7.8  18.0   260    9    5   7.3   4.0    5.8  42.5    -4.9    305  1.5
  9000   -7.2  19.0   250   10    5   7.3   4.0    5.7  42.2    -5.1    282  1.4
  8750   -6.7  19.9   250   10    5   6.9   3.8    5.5  41.8    -5.3    259  1.3
  8500   -6.2  20.8   255   11    5   6.7   3.7    5.2  41.4    -5.6    237  1.2
  8250   -5.7  21.7   260   11    6   6.8   3.7    5.0  41.0    -5.8    215  1.1
  8000   -5.2  22.6   265   12    6   6.7   3.7    4.8  40.6    -6.1    193  1.0
  7750   -4.7  23.5   265   10    5   6.7   3.6    4.5  40.1    -6.3    170  0.9
  7500   -4.2  24.4   260    7    4   6.7   3.7    4.3  39.7    -6.6    148  0.8
  7250   -3.8  25.2   245    4    2   6.7   3.7    4.0  39.3    -6.8    126  0.6
  7000   -3.3  26.1   200    2    1   6.6   3.6    3.8  38.9    -7.1    104  0.5
  6750   -2.8  27.0   175    2    1   6.8   3.7    3.6  38.4    -7.3     81  0.4
  6500   -2.3  27.9   145    2    1   6.8   3.7    3.4  38.0    -7.6     59  0.3
  6250   -1.8  28.8   115    2    1   7.3   4.0    3.1  37.7    -7.8     37  0.2
  6000   -1.2  29.8   115    3    1   8.0   4.4    3.0  37.4    -8.0     12  0.1
  5750   -0.6  30.9   130    3    1   7.9   4.3    2.9  37.2    -8.1      M    M
  5500    0.0  32.0   125    3    2   8.0   4.4    2.7  36.9    -8.3      M    M
  5250    0.6  33.1   120    5    3   7.8   4.3    2.6  36.7    -8.5      M    M
  5000    1.2  34.2   110    6    3   8.7   4.8    2.5  36.4    -8.6      M    M

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           03/26/2024 at 0900 MDT          |       03/26/2024 at 1200 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...   +30.7    LI...       +0.9        | CAPE...  +128.3    LI...       -0.4
CINH...    -2.7    K Index... +14.0        | CINH...    -0.4    K Index... +14.6
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.7 -64.7  285  33 17   1.1   0.6 | -53.6 -64.5  285  32 17   1.5   0.8
 45000 -52.0 -61.6  290  35 18   1.1   0.6 | -51.3 -60.3  290  33 17   1.5   0.8
 40000 -52.0 -61.6  290  31 16  -0.4  -0.2 | -51.9 -61.4  290  31 16  -0.8  -0.5
 38000 -52.2 -62.0  290  28 14  -0.8  -0.5 | -52.4 -62.3  290  30 16  -0.5  -0.3
 36000 -54.9 -66.8  295  25 13  -4.7  -2.6 | -54.9 -66.8  285  25 13  -4.6  -2.5
 34000 -57.7 -71.9  305  23 12  -4.7  -2.6 | -58.0 -72.4  275  19 10  -4.6  -2.5
 32000 -56.8 -70.2  320  22 11   6.0   3.3 | -56.7 -70.1  280  14  7   6.0   3.3
 30000 -53.2 -63.8  330  22 11   6.0   3.3 | -53.1 -63.6  295  11  5   6.0   3.3
 29000 -51.4 -60.5  335  22 11   6.6   3.6 | -51.2 -60.2  300  10  5   7.0   3.8
 28000 -49.4 -56.9  330  22 11   6.5   3.6 | -49.1 -56.4  300  10  5   7.0   3.8
 27000 -47.4 -53.3  330  21 11   6.5   3.6 | -47.0 -52.6  300  11  6   7.0   3.8
 26000 -45.0 -49.0  325  20 10   6.8   3.7 | -44.9 -48.8  300  11  6   6.9   3.8
 25000 -42.9 -45.2  325  20 10   6.8   3.7 | -42.9 -45.2  300  12  6   6.9   3.8
 24000 -40.9 -41.6  320  20 10   6.8   3.7 | -40.8 -41.4  300  13  6   6.9   3.8
 23000 -38.8 -37.8  315  20 10   8.2   4.5 | -38.8 -37.8  295  13  7   7.3   4.0
 22000 -36.3 -33.3  315  20 10   8.3   4.6 | -36.5 -33.7  295  13  7   7.7   4.2
 21000 -33.8 -28.8  310  19 10   8.3   4.5 | -33.6 -28.5  295  13  7   7.7   4.2
 20000 -31.6 -24.9  310  19 10   5.9   3.3 | -31.6 -24.9  290  13  7   5.7   3.1
 19500 -30.7 -23.3  305  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -30.8 -23.4  290  14  7   5.7   3.1
 19000 -29.8 -21.6  305  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -29.9 -21.8  285  14  7   5.7   3.1
 18500 -28.9 -20.0  305  19 10   6.0   3.3 | -29.1 -20.4  285  14  7   5.7   3.1
 18000 -28.1 -18.6  300  19 10   6.1   3.3 | -28.3 -18.9  280  15  8   6.4   3.5
 17500 -27.1 -16.8  300  19 10   6.3   3.5 | -27.2 -17.0  280  15  8   6.9   3.8
 17000 -26.2 -15.2  300  19 10   6.2   3.4 | -26.2 -15.2  280  16  8   7.1   3.9
 16500 -25.1 -13.2  300  19 10   7.7   4.2 | -25.1 -13.2  285  16  8   8.0   4.4
 16000 -24.0 -11.2  300  18 10   7.6   4.2 | -23.9 -11.0  285  16  8   7.9   4.3
 15500 -22.9  -9.2  300  18  9   7.8   4.3 | -22.7  -8.9  285  16  8   8.5   4.7
 15000 -21.7  -7.1  295  17  9   7.8   4.3 | -21.4  -6.5  285  16  8   8.5   4.7
 14500 -20.6  -5.1  295  17  9   8.0   4.4 | -20.2  -4.4  285  16  8   8.3   4.6
 14000 -19.4  -2.9  295  16  8   8.1   4.4 | -18.9  -2.0  285  16  8   8.3   4.6
 13500 -18.1  -0.6  295  16  8   8.1   4.4 | -17.7   0.1  285  16  8   8.2   4.5
 13000 -16.9   1.6  295  15  8   8.1   4.5 | -16.5   2.3  285  16  8   8.1   4.5
 12500 -15.7   3.7  290  15  8   8.1   4.5 | -15.3   4.5  285  16  8   8.2   4.5
 12000 -14.5   5.9  290  15  8   8.2   4.5 | -14.1   6.6  285  15  8   8.2   4.5
 11500 -13.3   8.1  290  14  7   8.1   4.4 | -12.9   8.8  285  15  8   8.3   4.5
 11000 -12.1  10.2  290  14  7   8.0   4.4 | -11.7  10.9  285  14  7   8.3   4.6
 10500 -11.0  12.2  290  13  7   7.2   4.0 | -10.5  13.1  285  14  7   7.2   3.9
 10250 -10.5  13.1  290  13  7   5.9   3.3 | -10.0  14.0  285  13  7   5.7   3.1
 10000 -10.0  14.0  290  13  6   7.9   4.4 |  -9.5  14.9  285  13  7   9.2   5.0
  9750  -9.3  15.3  290  12  6  10.0   5.5 |  -8.7  16.3  285  12  6  11.2   6.1
  9500  -8.6  16.5  285  11  6   8.2   4.5 |  -8.0  17.6  285  12  6   8.2   4.5
  9250  -8.1  17.4  285  11  5   7.0   3.8 |  -7.4  18.7  285  11  6   7.1   3.9
  9000  -7.6  18.3  285  10  5   7.8   4.3 |  -6.9  19.6  285  11  6   9.1   5.0
  8750  -6.4  20.5  285   8  4   7.5   4.1 |  -6.1  21.0  280  10  5   9.9   5.4
  8500  -5.9  21.4  280   7  4   7.4   4.1 |  -5.5  22.1  280   9  5   8.3   4.6
  8250  -5.3  22.5  280   7  3   6.9   3.8 |  -4.8  23.4  280   9  5   8.8   4.9
  8000  -4.9  23.2  280   7  4   7.0   3.8 |  -3.7  25.3  280   8  4   8.6   4.7
  7750  -4.3  24.3  275   6  3   7.4   4.0 |  -3.0  26.6  280   8  4  10.1   5.6
  7500  -3.8  25.2  270   5  3   8.1   4.4 |  -2.2  28.0  275   7  4  10.7   5.9
  7250  -3.3  26.1  260   4  2   5.0   2.7 |  -1.5  29.3  275   7  4   7.0   3.8
  7000  -3.0  26.6  255   4  2   5.8   3.2 |  -1.1  30.0  280   7  4   7.8   4.3
  6750  -2.3  27.9  245   4  2   9.9   5.4 |  -0.2  31.6  275   7  3  12.3   6.8
  6500  -1.6  29.1  235   3  2   8.9   4.9 |   0.6  33.1  275   6  3  10.7   5.9
  6250  -1.0  30.2  220   3  1   8.6   4.7 |   1.4  34.5  275   6  3  10.6   5.8
  6000  -0.4  31.3  205   3  1   7.7   4.2 |   2.1  35.8  280   6  3   8.7   4.8
  5750   0.3  32.5  210   3  1  10.6   5.8 |   2.8  37.0  275   6  3  13.4   7.3
  5500   1.6  34.9  200   2  1  31.6  17.3 |   5.1  41.2  280   5  3  57.4  31.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           03/26/2024 at 1500 MDT          |       03/26/2024 at 1800 MDT
                                           |
CAPE...  +121.8    LI...       -0.8        | CAPE...   +22.4    LI...       +0.4
CINH...    -0.7    K Index... +16.6        | CINH...    -6.7    K Index... +19.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -53.6 -64.5  285  33 17   1.5   0.8 | -53.4 -64.1  290  34 18   1.1   0.6
 45000 -51.3 -60.3  290  30 16   1.5   0.8 | -51.8 -61.2  295  34 17   1.1   0.6
 40000 -51.6 -60.9  295  32 17  -0.6  -0.3 | -51.9 -61.4  300  36 19  -0.4  -0.2
 38000 -52.0 -61.6  295  34 17  -0.4  -0.2 | -52.1 -61.8  305  38 19  -0.4  -0.2
 36000 -54.7 -66.5  285  27 14  -4.5  -2.4 | -53.7 -64.7  295  32 17  -2.5  -1.3
 34000 -57.4 -71.3  265  22 11  -4.5  -2.5 | -55.1 -67.2  285  28 14  -2.5  -1.4
 32000 -56.4 -69.5  250  19 10   5.1   2.8 | -54.7 -66.5  265  23 12   2.4   1.3
 30000 -53.3 -63.9  235  16  8   5.2   2.8 | -53.3 -63.9  235  22 11   2.5   1.4
 29000 -51.6 -60.9  235  15  8   6.4   3.5 | -52.1 -61.8  225  23 12   6.4   3.5
 28000 -49.7 -57.5  240  14  7   6.4   3.5 | -50.2 -58.4  225  21 11   6.3   3.5
 27000 -47.8 -54.0  245  14  7   6.4   3.5 | -48.3 -54.9  225  20 10   6.3   3.5
 26000 -45.8 -50.4  255  14  7   7.3   4.0 | -46.4 -51.5  225  18  9   7.0   3.9
 25000 -43.5 -46.3  255  14  7   7.8   4.3 | -44.2 -47.6  230  17  9   7.5   4.1
 24000 -41.1 -42.0  260  13  7   7.8   4.3 | -41.9 -43.4  240  16  8   7.5   4.1
 23000 -38.8 -37.8  265  13  7   7.5   4.1 | -39.7 -39.5  250  16  8   7.5   4.1
 22000 -36.1 -33.0  270  14  7   7.3   4.0 | -36.9 -34.4  260  15  8   7.4   4.1
 21000 -33.9 -29.0  270  14  7   7.3   4.0 | -34.7 -30.5  270  16  8   7.4   4.1
 20000 -31.8 -25.2  275  14  7   6.7   3.7 | -32.3 -26.1  275  16  8   8.6   4.7
 19500 -30.8 -23.4  275  15  8   6.7   3.7 | -31.0 -23.8  275  16  8   8.6   4.7
 19000 -29.8 -21.6  275  15  8   6.7   3.7 | -29.7 -21.5  280  16  8   8.6   4.7
 18500 -28.8 -19.8  280  15  8   6.7   3.7 | -28.4 -19.1  280  16  8   8.6   4.7
 18000 -27.8 -18.0  280  15  8   7.5   4.1 | -27.1 -16.8  280  16  8   8.5   4.7
 17500 -26.7 -16.1  280  15  8   7.9   4.3 | -25.9 -14.6  280  16  8   8.4   4.6
 17000 -25.5 -13.9  280  15  8   8.0   4.4 | -24.6 -12.3  285  16  8   8.3   4.6
 16500 -24.3 -11.7  280  15  8   8.4   4.6 | -23.4 -10.1  285  16  8   7.9   4.3
 16000 -23.0  -9.4  280  14  7   8.4   4.6 | -22.3  -8.1  285  15  8   7.9   4.4
 15500 -21.8  -7.2  280  14  7   8.4   4.6 | -21.1  -6.0  290  15  8   7.9   4.3
 15000 -20.5  -4.9  280  13  7   8.4   4.6 | -19.9  -3.8  290  15  8   7.9   4.3
 14500 -19.3  -2.7  275  13  7   8.3   4.5 | -18.7  -1.7  290  15  8   8.1   4.4
 14000 -18.1  -0.6  275  13  7   8.2   4.5 | -17.5   0.5  290  15  8   8.1   4.4
 13500 -16.8   1.8  275  13  7   8.5   4.7 | -16.4   2.5  290  15  8   8.0   4.4
 13000 -15.6   3.9  275  13  6   8.6   4.7 | -15.2   4.6  290  16  8   7.9   4.4
 12500 -14.3   6.3  270  12  6   8.6   4.7 | -14.0   6.8  290  16  8   8.0   4.4
 12000 -13.0   8.6  270  12  6   8.5   4.7 | -12.8   9.0  290  16  8   8.0   4.4
 11500 -11.8  10.8  270  12  6   8.5   4.7 | -11.7  10.9  290  16  8   8.0   4.4
 11000 -10.5  13.1  270  12  6   8.5   4.7 | -10.5  13.1  290  16  8   8.1   4.4
 10500  -9.3  15.3  270  12  6   7.7   4.2 |  -9.4  15.1  290  16  8   6.6   3.6
 10250  -8.8  16.2  265  11  6   6.5   3.5 |  -8.9  16.0  290  16  8   4.9   2.7
 10000  -8.3  17.1  265  11  6   9.4   5.1 |  -8.5  16.7  295  16  8   9.0   5.0
  9750  -7.5  18.5  270  12  6  11.2   6.2 |  -7.7  18.1  290  15  8  11.1   6.1
  9500  -6.7  19.9  270  11  6   9.0   4.9 |  -7.0  19.4  290  15  8   7.6   4.2
  9250  -6.1  21.0  270  11  6   8.7   4.8 |  -6.5  20.3  290  15  8   6.5   3.5
  9000  -5.4  22.3  265  11  6   8.8   4.9 |  -6.0  21.2  290  15  8   9.5   5.2
  8750  -4.8  23.4  270  11  6   9.3   5.1 |  -5.1  22.8  290  15  8  10.0   5.5
  8500  -3.3  26.1  270  11  6   9.5   5.2 |  -4.6  23.7  290  14  7   7.1   3.9
  8250  -2.6  27.3  270  11  6  10.2   5.6 |  -4.0  24.8  290  14  7   8.6   4.7
  8000  -1.8  28.8  270  10  5  10.1   5.5 |  -3.4  25.9  290  14  7   5.7   3.1
  7750  -1.1  30.0  270  10  5   9.3   5.1 |  -2.4  27.7  295  14  7   8.8   4.8
  7500  -0.4  31.3  270  10  5   9.7   5.3 |  -1.8  28.8  290  13  7   9.7   5.3
  7250   0.3  32.5  270  10  5   8.8   4.9 |  -1.2  29.8  290  13  7   3.6   2.0
  7000   0.9  33.6  275  10  5   9.5   5.2 |  -1.1  30.0  295  13  7   4.3   2.3
  6750   1.7  35.1  275  10  5  10.8   5.9 |  -0.4  31.3  295  12  6  11.5   6.3
  6500   2.5  36.5  275  10  5  10.4   5.7 |   0.3  32.5  290  11  6   8.5   4.7
  6250   3.3  37.9  275  10  5  12.2   6.7 |   0.8  33.4  290  11  6   5.5   3.0
  6000   4.2  39.6  275  10  5   9.0   4.9 |   1.2  34.2  290  10  5   7.1   3.9
  5750   4.8  40.6  275   9  5  10.5   5.8 |   2.0  35.6  290   9  5  16.0   8.8
  5500   7.4  45.3  280   9  4  80.6  44.2 |   3.2  37.8  285   8  4  11.9   6.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CINH (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613


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