626
FXUS63 KGLD 081923
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
123 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Briefly critical fire weather conditions are forecast 1 to 4
 PM MT for locales along and south of I-70.

- Precipitation chances return Thursday and then again Sat/Sun;
  widespread precipitation possible especially along and south
  of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

Latest upper air analysis shows a closed low over the Northern
Plains. Water vapor imagery indicates dry air over the Plains
feeding into the low.

For the rest of the afternoon the northwesterly winds will
gradually decline from west to east. During this timeframe there
will be a window for critical fire weather conditions over the
southern part of the forecast area. However confidence is too
low to issue a fire weather hazard at this time.

For tonight the winds will become north and remain light. A weak
cold front will move through around sunrise.

Thursday will be similar to today with light northerly winds and
similar temperatures to today. The upper level low currently
north of the forecast area will elongate to the southwest,
positioning itself over the Four Corners Region. During the late
afternoon a short wave trough will round the closed low. The
short wave trough may graze the western part of the forecast
area during the afternoon. However most of the rainfall will be
west of the forecast area.

Thursday night the rainfall chances will continue to be west of
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Wed May 8 2024

A return to a more active pattern appears to be in store for the Tri-
State area for the extended period. Moisture looks to return to the
area initially from the Pacific Northwest and then the Gulf of
Mexico as we head into the weekend. A stationary elongated trough
looks to be set up across the Inter Mountain West which looks to
bring precipitation to the Rockies and just to the east. For
our area the main threat for precipitation looks to be Saturday
as the Gulf moisture works its way in and the elongated trough
begins to sag southward some along for some disturbances to
move onto the Plains. This system will then slowly move east as
we head into the new work week. At this time it appears that
daily chances for showers and storms is favored starting
Saturday and into the new work week.

As for any severe threat, the overall threat appears to be minimal
at this time as the system will be lacking shear with it. Can`t
completely rule out some severe weather however as daily mesoscale
features may support some threat, but is way to early to nail down
those details. PWATS do look to increase towards 0.8 to 1 inch
across the area; especially starting Saturday night. Corfidi
vectors appear to be somewhat slow around 20 knots which may
support some training potential. At this time not overall
concerned with any hydro issues west of Highway 25 due to the
overall lack of moisture over the past few months. The main area
to keep an eye on potentially for any hydro issues would be
along and east of Highway 83 where multiple MCS`s and clusters
of storms where soil moisture is a little higher. Overall though
current forecasted QPF from Saturday into Monday is around .6
to .8 inches; so any hydro issues would be confined to training
of storms.

Temperatures for the period will feel a bit more "May" like with
highs in the 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the 40s to 50s.
Which is good news thus for those with planting or other
agricultural interests as the entire area reaches its average last
freeze date.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1114 AM MDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northwesterly winds will
gradually decline this afternoon, remaining light through the
night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...JTL