Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 230952
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
252 AM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A cooling trend back to seasonal normals lasting through
Friday.

2. A few thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Today
and Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours.

3. The next storm system will impact Central California Friday
with mountain snows, foothill rains, and a chance of valley
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The ridge that provided the above normal temperatures for the
region exited off into the Great Basin and upper heights are
dropping with the approaching upper air disturbance over the
Eastern Pacific working towards the California coast line. There
is some very weak convective energy over the Sierra this
afternoon. Thunderstorm probabilities range from 5-16% for the
higher elevations with the Yosemite Valley coming in at 8% and
Tioga Pass at 16%. High temperatures around 10 degrees lower this
afternoon from Monday afternoon for all of Central California.

On Wednesday height falls continue for the region. This aides in
steepening lapse rates and more convective available potential
energy for the Sierra. Temperature cut back two to four degrees
from Tuesday high temperatures. Here are some probability
numbers for the Sierra Nevada for thunderstorm activity
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Tioga Pass          20%         Yosemite Valley    15%
Wawona              13%         Lake Thomas Edison 19%
Oakhurst            10%         Shaver Lake        12%
Grant Grove         12%         Three Rivers        8%

On Thursday the upper wave ejects into the Grand Canyon State as
the Golden State falls in Northwest flow aloft. Temperatures
hold slightly below normal to normal in the mid to upper 70s.
The probability of thunderstorms is near zero for all the
region.

On Friday a piece of energy slides down from the Northeast
Pacific through the area. This stronger wave brings a better
probability of rainfall and mountain snow. The other potential
is thunderstorms getting down into the valley. Rainfall and
snowfall amounts are fairly low below impact levels. The
probability of exceeding 1/4 inch of rainfall ranges from 5-20%
in the Sierra and less than 1% for the valley outside of any
thunderstorms. The probability of thunderstorms Friday afternoon
and evening are as follows:

Tioga Pass          20%         Yosemite Valley          21%
Wawona              21%         Oakhurst                 19%
Shaver Lake         19%         Grants Grove             18%
Merced              12%         Madera                   11%
Fresno              12%         Hanford                  10%
Visalia             13%         Delano                    9%
Bakersfield          7%         Pine Mountain Club        6%

The upper disturbance exits Saturday from California into the
Central Plains states. The Golden State continues northwest flow
aloft keeping climatological normals going for temperatures and
a rather a dry period begins.

Sunday through Tuesday very little change in temperatures
continues through the period. The impactful weather remains over
the Pacific Northwest as general weak trough develops by Tuesday
for California, however precipitation is not expected.

Further out the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day CPC forecast
continues the climatic normal trend on temperatures and
precipitation for Central California.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. High Cirrus from time to time otherwise unobstructed flying
weather for the San Joaquin Valley terminals. Afternoon cumulus
builds possible over 6,000 feet and higher Sierra elevations
have a low probability of thunderstorms in the typical 21Z-02Z
time frame.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/22/2024 14:16
EXPIRES: 04/23/2024 23:59
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public/aviation/fire weather...Proton
DSS/PIO....SM

weather.gov/hanford