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000
FXUS63 KICT 160859
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms tracking east this morning.

- Strong winds and warm today.

- 15-30% chances for showers and storms this afternoon in NC KS.

- Chances for strong/severe storms Thursday.

- Much cooler (below normal temperatures) by the weekend.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

We`re expecting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to
continue advancing east-northeast across generally the eastern half
of Kansas through early this morning (through about 9 AM or so),
along and ahead of an approaching potent upper shortwave and
associated Pacific cold front. Strengthening effective deep layer
shear owing to an approaching mid-level speed max amidst steep mid-
level lapse rates and  strong instability will favor strong to
marginally severe storms. A rather messy storm mode is anticipated
given the widespread coverage and increasingly unfavorable hodograph
shape, with not everyone seeing severe weather. Still, thinking the
strongest cores will be capable of dime-quarter size hail and 50-60
mph winds, along with locally heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Challenges:

1) Precipitation chances
2) Temperatures on Thursday

Changes:

1) Increased temps today
2) Precipitation chances
3) Wind Advisory from 9AM-7PM

Synoptically there is a ridge stretching from the Gulf of
Mexico to Lake Huron with a trough for the western portions of
the CONUS. A low pressure system within an embedded shortwave of
the upper trough will deepen as it tracks northeast into the
north Central Plains early today as it heads towards the upper
Mississippi River Valley tonight. The tight gradient associated
with this system should result in sustained wind speeds of 20 to
30 mph with gusts near 45 mph; even the ensembles are
highlighting the higher wind potential compared to what is
typical for this time of year. This has prompted the issuance of
a Wind Advisory from this morning until early evening; winds
should diminish quickly in the latter part of the afternoon from
south to north. As this system pushes off to the northeast,
there could be wrap around precipitation (showers and storms) in
north central Kansas this afternoon, but they may stay off to
the north which is why the 15-30% chances were tweaked/shifted.
Daytime highs were bumped up a touch from the previous forecast
with values in the upper 70s to lower 80s or 10 to 15 degrees
above seasonal normals; similar values are anticipated for
Wednesday. A surging dryline will usher in drier air through the
day. The combination of the drier air and higher temps lead to
elevated grassland fire danger in the very high category mainly
along and west of Interstate 135 or a line from Saline to
western Marion to western Harper counties and points west.

A shortwave will move through late Wednesday into Thursday. There is
some instability and shear which could lead to potential for strong
to marginally severe thunderstorms even in the early morning hours
into the afternoon. A decent cold front associated with this system
means a stark contrast in daytime high temperatures from the upper
50s in north central Kansas to around 80 degrees in southeast
Kansas. The timing of the cooler air could swing temperatures in one
direction or another. Gusty northerly winds behind the front are
anticipated as well which could approach Wind Advisory criteria
briefly. This cooler air will settle in for the end of the week into
the weekend with daytime highs dropping back below seasonal normal
by 5 to 15 degrees with high pressure moving in. A subtle feature is
noted for late Friday into Saturday has led to 20-40% chances for
showers. Overnight temperatures especially in north central Kansas
may touch freezing Sunday morning and a frost headline; if you have
sensitive outdoor plants, you will want to continue to check the
forecast and plan to protect them as needed. Models are hinting at a
wave at the start of next week, but the model timing isn`t currently
in line. There does appear to be a warming trend at the start of
next week though with highs back in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Main aviation concerns will be overnight storms along with
strong winds on Tue afternoon.

Storms are developing along the cold front over west-central KS
and are gradually tracking east. Meanwhile a few additional
storms have developed across west-central OK and southern KS in
an area of strong mid level warm advection. Current thinking is
that the warm advection activity will remain fairy isolated with
the best storm coverage associated with the cold front
convection. Confidence still remains highest across central KS
affecting KRSL-KGBD-KSLN. The best chance for southern KS to see
sct to widespread activity would be for the storms developing
across far western OK to continuing lifting to the northeast,
which many of the short term models are forecasting.

Surface low will be situated over central/eastern Nebraska by
early Tue morning with gusty southwest and west winds
overspreading the area. Locations along and east of I-135 should
see gusts in the 40-45 mph range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Very high fire danger is expected along a line from Saline to
Marion to western Harvey and points west mainly this afternoon
with winds at 20 to 30 mph and gusts near 45 mph as drier air
pushes. Minimum relative humidities will be around 30%. There is
a chance for scattered showers and storms in north central
Kansas this afternoon though too.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...ADK
DISCUSSION...VJP
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...VJP