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000
FXUS63 KIWX 151625
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1225 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Ongoing river flooding continues to improve with 3 of the 4
  remaining river levels subsiding. There is still some
  potential that  heavy rainfall Tuesday and Wednesday may
  again renew river flooding.

- The best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms are
  Tuesday into Wednesday afternoon.

- 3 more warm days with highs in the 70s then cooler with highs
  mainly in the 50s Friday through Sunday with chances for
  freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Conditions have stabilized overnight allowing isolated storms to
end overnight, although the latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 500+
MU/CAPE hanging on over portions of nw Ohio including the Lima
area. A weak wave was along the front over northern Indiana.
This system/low will move east and cause the front to
temporarily move south of the area today setting the stage for
the front to return north as a warm front Tuesday. A variety of
severe weather is possible Tuesday into Wednesday given a very
large amount of bulk shear that develops Tuesday in tandem with
increasing upper level support from a negatively tilted upper
level trof. As for SPC, there is a marginal risk of severe
storms Tuesday as the warm front moves north followed by a
slight risk for severe storms Wednesday as a cold front with
stronger upper level support arrives. Given the amount of bulk
shear, a modifying EML over the area helping CAPEs to max out
between 1000 to 2000 J/Kg, upper level support and high
precipitable water values, this scenario supports a chance for
all hazards including a isolated tornado, large hail, strong to
severe gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

Ongoing river flooding was improving early this morning at 3 of
the 4 remaining river flood locations across the Upper Wabash
especially south of Ft Wayne from the Bluffton area down to
Geneva where several roads are still likely to remain impassible
according to a survey Sunday and ongoing river gauge readings.
Any heavy additional rain may aggravate this current situation.
Otherwise, a cooler and drier pattern change will begin late
this week with as a longwave trof axis sets up over east North
America. Temperatures may drop to freezing this coming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Dry and stable conditions on the southern flank of high pressure
will allow VFR/dry conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Steinwedel