070
FXUS63 KIWX 271009
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
609 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and gusty winds this
  afternoon.

- Unseasonably warm and unsettled with periodic rain and
  storms through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Decaying arc of convection advancing newd out of wrn/cntrl IN will
be out of ern areas around daybreak. Otherwise broad warm advection
continues downstream of sfc cyclone and potent parent wave aloft
over nw IA with modest theta-e riding poking into the srn lakes. LLJ
weakens through morning and this aftn before some modest
strengthening occurs tonight. Adequate low level theta-e ridge
remains in place and with substantial diurnal destabilization will
lead to redevelopment of showers/storms this aftn within sfc
confluence zone broadly pinned through nrn IN/nw OH. This is
expected to consolidate in time this evening as it shifts into nw
IN/srn MI and where it is likely to persist into early Sun morning
before lifting out. Some of these storms this aftn could be strong
to severe with marginal hail/gusty winds.

Sun expected to be dry and quite warm as heights build through the
wrn OH valley in response to next plains bowling ball wrecking havoc
out west. Expect widespread 80+ degree temps. Plains low will
release on a similar trajectory as the current sys, into sw ON by
late Mon as cold front washes out ewd. Still some chance for showers
late Sun night/but weakening low level flow/forcing portents little
more. Brief/shallow sfc ridge follows Tue before trailing cold front
in association with yet another potent nrn plains shortwave stalls
out locally early Wed.

Thereafter late period muddles considerably owing to stalled frontal
zone and continued parade of shortwave disturbances out of the wrn
US. Suffice it to say unsettled wx the expectation through DY7
(Fri). Otherwise area will stay on warm side of the flow aloft with
unseasonably warm temps persisting through the week before cooling
down next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 606 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Widely scattered showers are moving through this morning as seen
on local radar. Low chances (20-30%) for rain persist through
much of the day today, and any showers will be very hit or miss.
Have kept vicinity showers in the KFWA and KSBN TAFs, although
opted to take out vicinity thunderstorms, albeit there may be a
few rumbles of thunder today. Southwesterly winds will be
sustained at 10-15 kts today with gusts up to 25-30 kts. Better
chances for rain arrive tonight after 00Z along and north of
I-80/I-90. Have included MVFR ceilings and visibilities at KSBN
with just a mention of showers at KFWA through the end of the
TAF forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
     046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Roller
AVIATION...Johnson