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000
FXUS62 KJAX 260602
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
202 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Periods of
scattered to broken stratocumulus ceilings of 5,000-6,000 feet are
expected through Friday evening. An easterly wind surge on Friday
afternoon and evening could advect a few light showers or
sprinkles towards the SGJ terminal, but confidence was too low to
include in the TAFs at this time. Light winds overnight will shift
to easterly by 16Z, with sustained surface speeds increasing to
around 15 knots at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals, CRG, and JAX
by 20Z, with speeds elsewhere increasing to 10-15 knots. Easterly
surface winds will then subside to 5-10 knots by 01Z Saturday at
the inland terminals, while sustained speeds remain around 10
knots at the coastal terminals through the overnight hours on
Friday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 705 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Going forecast on track. No changes planned.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A stalled and diffuse boundary near the FL/GA border will begin to
dissipate through Friday as high pressure shifts to the northeast
and wedges across the local area. This will increase the local
gradients and onshore flow through Saturday. Through Saturday,
ridging will aloft will amplify along the eastern US. Subsidence
associated with this feature will keep meaningful rain chances near
nil; however, a weak coastal trough over the local waters may push a
few sprinkles into the immediate coast on Saturday (kept pops silent
<10% at this time). With the moistening onshore flow, skies will
trend partly to mostly cloudy by Saturday, especially near the
coast. Combination of increasing cloud cover and the breezy, 10-15
mph, onshore flow, temps will trend from the mid 80s inland Friday
to the low 80s Saturday while the coastal areas peak in the upper
70s to near 80 each day while overnight temps remain in the mild
low/mid 60s.

The main concern over the weekends will be beach hazards as surf
builds and rip current risk increases (more below in the marine
section).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Ridging progged to initially hold steady through the end of the
weekend and into early next before being flattened by a dampening
upstream shortwave trough Tuesday. That feature will drag a surface
cold front with it but as it weakens the front appears to stall
generally to the northwest, extending the ongoing dry-spell likely
through the latter end of next week when sea breeze showers may
begin to be prevalent... Otherwise temperatures will trend above
normal through next week with temperatures flirting with the 90s
once again as southerly flow develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A weak cold front has stalled across the FL/GA line, increasing
cloud cover for SE GA. Weakening high pressure to the south has
allowed the Atlantic sea breeze to develop near shore this
afternoon and evening. Onshore flow will strengthen Friday and
through the weekend creating cautionary conditions for NE FL near
shore waters over the weekend and possible small craft advisory
conditions offshore as seas build for NE FL Saturday evening and
into early Sunday morning.

Rip Currents: Moderate Rip current risk at all beaches today,
increasing to high risk by Saturday morning and lasting through
the weekend as surf builds around 5 foot and breezy, persistent
onshore winds develop.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

A weak cool front will near the FL/GA border will dissipate through
Friday as strengthening high pressure wedges in from the northeast.
This will lead to increasing easterly surface and transport winds
Friday and into the weekend yielding elevated to high dispersions,
particularly Saturday. Given the onshore flow, afternoon humidity
will gradually trend upward each day. However, winds will be
elevated (10-15 mph) and a bit gusty during the afternoons (15-20
mph) through the weekend as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  85  63  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  78  67  78  67 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  82  65  80  64 /   0   0  10   0
SGJ  82  67  80  67 /   0   0  10   0
GNV  86  62  83  61 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  87  63  84  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$