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000
FXUS62 KKEY 241809
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
209 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

It has been a picturesque day across the Keys today. A thermal
trough has developed across the Florida Peninsula, which has led
to a decrease in winds, most notably in the vicinity of south
Florida. Here winds are 10 knots (12 mph) or less across the
Upper Keys and surrounding coastal waters. Temperatures are in the
lower 80s with dew points in the lower 60s. KBYX shows no
precipitation echoes across our area.

The forecast thought process remains the same. Weak surface
anticyclone centered just east of the Sunshine State will wax
tonight and wane during Thursday afternoon day as a thermal trough
bifurcates it. This will keep winds generally 15 knots (17 mph)
or less through the next 24 hours. In addition, deep layer dry air
will continue to suppress any rain chances through the same
period.

An upper level ridge will eject out of the Central and Southern
Plains and move eastward at the end of the week. At the same time
a strong surface anticyclone originating from southern Ontario
will spill out across the Atlantic. As this feature drifts further
south, it will phase with the upper level ridge, allowing it
build. As a result we will see fresh to occasionally strong
easterly breezes develop across the area starting Friday
afternoon. This will persist through the weekend and into early
next week. Thereafter, a shortwave trough aloft will break down
the upper level ridge, helping to release its grip across our
area and winds will gradually slacken.

Despite the prolonged (6+ days) of easterly winds forecasted,
boundary layer moisture will hardly budge. Meanwhile, no upper
level injection of moisture can be seen in most of the models.
This means that rain chances will be slight (10-15%) at best and
will occur where the moisture and speed convergence intersection
is maximized. In addition, easterly winds will also mean near
steady temperatures through the period with daytime highs in the
lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid 70s. Surprisingly, dew
points look to stay near and below 70 degrees through the next 4-6
days, keeping conditions rather pleasant.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Gentle to moderate breezes will prevail over the next
couple of days as high pressure moves from the Southeastern
states offshore into the western Atlantic. This high will be
subsumed into a larger high spreading into the western North
Atlantic late this week and into the weekend. This will be
accompanied by freshening easterly breezes across the Keys
waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions are becoming
increasingly likely, especially Friday evening and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH tonight and tomorrow.
Near-surface easterly winds will slacken to 5 to 10 knots and gusts
will drop out of the TAFs in the evening. CIGs will remain above
MVFR heights due to the lack of a cloud line over the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  74  83  75  84 /   0   0   0   0
Marathon  75  83  75  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP
Data Acquisition.....AJP

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