911
FXUS63 KLBF 022322
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
622 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High precipitation chances Friday afternoon into Friday night
  with some strong storms possible near and south of Highway 2.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Sunday night
  through Monday evening. SPC is highlighting a Slight Risk for
  severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of Highway 83.

- Temperatures remain slightly below seasonal through the
  weekend into next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

At 19Z...weak surface high pressure extended from southern
Wyoming across western Nebraska. Much drier air has moved into
western Nebraska. Dewpoints as low as the upper teens to lower
20s. This has produced humidity levels as low as the upper
teens. With west to northwest winds gusting to around 25 mph,
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are occurring
this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

An upper trough was currently located from western MT through
ID and eastern WA, well behind the main upper trough over ND and
eastern MT. The upper trough out west will advance toward WY
and northern ID by 12Z Friday. This will bring a return
southerly wind to the area late tonight. Also a slight chance
for showers after midnight to the western Sandhills as weak lift
in the mid levels increases. Lows tonight will range in the
30s, with lows near 32 at Valentine and Gordon where winds will
remain light and variable.

Friday into Friday evening...the upper trough will advance into
central ND through central WY by late afternoon. This will
drive a cold front into the area. Gusty south winds 20 to 30 mph
will occur ahead of the front. Dewpoints will increase into the
mid and upper 40s across southwest and central Nebraska in the
afternoon. Despite modest dewpoints, steep mid level lapse rates
(H7-H5) near 8.5 C/KM, strong lift, and 0-6km shear near 50kts
will exist ahead of storm development. The latest CAMS develop
storms near the surface front across the western Sandhills with
increased development southeastward through the remainder of
the afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
should reach a line from east of Valentine through North Platte
and Imperial by 6pm CDT. SPC is highlighting a Marginal Risk for
severe weather Monday afternoon into Monday evening near and
south of Highway 2. Damaging winds are possible with fairly dry
air up to 700mb, although hail up to 1 inch diameter is also
possible with the stronger storms. Convection should exit the
area by 06Z Saturday, with clear skies and surface high
pressure building in overnight. This will bring a chilly night,
with subfreezing lows expected across the western Sandhills with
mid to upper 30s to the east.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Saturday, sunny and somewhat cool with highs mainly in the
lower 60s. Winds will be light northerly.

Saturday night, winds turn southeasterly with lows not as cold
in the upper 30s to near 40.

Sunday, A deep upper trough will move into the Great Basin with
a closed low centered over Nevada. Upper flow will be
southwesterly over the area with dewpoints rising into the mid
40s to low 50s with a slight chance for afternoon showers.

Sunday night through Monday night, the upper trough will take on
a negative tilt and extend from western MT through southeastern
CO by 18Z Monday. May see a distinct dryline develop across the
west with dewpoints into the 50s across the east. Models agree
showers and storm will increase through the day as they move
eastward. Due to a strongly sheared environment with steep
lapse rates, surface features will play as strong role in where
the strong to severe storms focus. SPC is highlighting a Slight
Risk for severe weather Monday into Monday evening east of
Highway 83. A further westward shift is possible. Keep informed
of future updates on the evolution of this approaching system
Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday, the upper flow will remain fairly
zonal as a fairly west to east upper trough and closed low
extends across the Northern Plains. This will keep at least a
low chance for showers and perhaps a few afternoon evening
thunderstorms in the forecast. Highs will remain slightly below
normal mainly in the 60s during the period. Windy conditions
possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 622 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR will continue through midday Friday for western and north
central Nebraska terminals, then aviation weather concerns
arise. Clouds thicken and ceilings lower throughout the day as a
storm system approaches the area. Rain showers begin to
overspread northern terminals (VTN) by late morning, then a line
of thunderstorms will likely cross the area late afternoon or
early evening. As for winds, gusty west/northwest winds will
taper around sunset, then restrengthen after sunrise. A boundary
will separate strong southerly winds for southern terminals
(LBF) from relatively lighter northerly flow for northern
terminals (VTN).

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Roberg
SHORT TERM...Roberg
LONG TERM...Roberg
AVIATION...Snively