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000
FXUS64 KLUB 191736
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Zonal flow aloft this morning will persist through much of the
daytime hours before gradually becoming southwest as a progressive
shortwave trough takes shape across SoCal today and shifts east into
Arizona by early tomorrow morning. Cloud cover will steadily
increase from the south throughout the day today, keeping
temperatures in the 60s area wide, while surface dewpoints climb
from the mid/upper 30s this afternoon to low/mid 40s later tonight.
Rain chances begin to increase after midnight tonight as a surface
trough broadens across our area under increased lift out ahead of
the deepening synoptic trough to our west. Rain amounts before
sunrise Saturday morning are expected to be less than a tenth of an
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Our widespread rainfall along with much below normal high
temperatures are still on track for Saturday. Compared to previous
forecasts though the surface cold front has trended farther south
which continues to shift the axis of heaviest rainfall farther south
as well. Saturday will start off cloudy and drizzly with a few light
rain showers. However, as a shortwave quickly approaches from the
west more organized showers and thunderstorms should develop as lift
increases over the forecast area. Elevated instability in the
morning hours around 1000 J/Kg along with straight line hodographs
suggest that there may be some small hail risk primarily across the
southern South Plains and southern Rolling Plains. However, this
instability will quickly diminish as we move into the late morning
hours with light to moderate showers and a few rumbles of thunder
continuing through the afternoon and early evening. Precipitation
will come to an end from west to east as subsidence increases behind
the shortwave Sunday evening. With the persistent cloud cover,
precipitation, and a reinforcing cold front, high temperatures on
Saturday will struggle to warm into the lower 50s. When all is said
and done the southern Rolling Plains should see the highest rainfall
totals with a 50-80 percent chance of exceeding a half inch of
rainfall while Lubbock only has a 30 percent chance.

Surface high pressure will settle into Oklahoma on Sunday and with
continued cloud cover through at least the afternoon this will keep
high temperatures below normal once again right around 60 degrees.
Upper-level ridging will strengthen overhead on Monday but quickly
shift east by Tuesday. This will allow  a return of downsloping
southwesterly winds as lee surface troughing takes shape. This will
help to boost temperatures back above normal for early next week
with high temperatures back into the mid 70s to lower 80s. A passing
wave across the Northern Plains will send another surface cold front
into our area Tuesday evening which will knock temperatures back to
near average for Wednesday. A weak shortwave is expected to move
through the ridge on Wednesday as well and with southeasterly
surface flow ahead of this system enough moisture may be in place
for another round of showers and thunderstorms although confidence
remains low at this time due to the weak nature of the system. A
more substantial system is expected towards the end of next week
however large spreads in the timing and strength of this system
exists hence confidence is below average in the details for the end
of next week. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Ceilings are hanging on longer than expected with satellite
imagery suggesting more than models that they will continue to do
so. Still, those ceilings are above 3000 ft at all three terminals
and should remain that way into the evening. However, sub-3000 ft
bases are expected to return to KLBB and KPVW mid to late evening
with an increase in shower coverage toward sunrise Saturday.
Elevated instability could be sufficient for some thunder at
KLBB, especially with the earliest showers but confidence in
coverage and timing remains too low to insert mention in the TAF
at this time.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...07