Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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171 FXUS64 KLUB 262013 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 313 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 Tonight, a short-lived mid-level zonal regime will situate over the Southern Plains ahead of a trough in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, dry southwesterly winds will keep the dryline east of our CWA. As the night progresses, surface winds in the eastern half of our CWA will shift southerly amid the strengthening low-level jet allowing the dryline to recede westward. By tomorrow morning, a convergence boundary will form as a result of the low-level jet allowing the possibility of a few storms in the eastern half of our CWA. Despite the surface instability, convective inhibition just above the surface will keep any convection elevated primarily posing a hail threat. The dryline will also move towards the Rolling Plains into the afternoon. Behind the dryline, moderately strong westerly winds will encompass much of the Caprock perhaps approaching Wind Advisory criteria. As the day continues, the trough will enter the Panhandle region with the maximized jet in our area around 0z. For more details, see the long-term discussion below. PND && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 The most notable weather in the long term forecast period will be tomorrow evening and night where strong to severe convection is possible in the the eastern Rolling Plains and the southeast Texas Panhandle along and east of the dryline. Latest CAMs and high resolution model guidance is pointing towards a slim area in the far eastern Rolling Plains and the extreme southeast Texas Panhandle where storms may initiate in the moist sector with forecast MLCAPE exceeding 3000 J/kg. Combined with effective bulk shear around 50 knots, supercells capable of very large hail are likely if storms initiate in the forecast area. Dryline position will be key for tomorrow`s severe weather potential. Even if storms initiate in our far eastern column of counties, E-NE storm motion of 30+ knots may not give convection enough time to organize and form strong mesocyclones in our area. Forecast hodographs favor right moving supercells, but some left movers may shoot north and produce large hail. Typically large hail is the main severe hazard when we see convection in the early stages and with as much instability as mentioned earlier, very large hail up to baseball size will be possible with any thunderstorms that initiate and have time to form vigorous updrafts. But again, we want to emphasize that chances of severe thunderstorms in the eastern Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle is low and coverage would likely be isolated but any thunderstorms that develop will most certainly intensify quickly. One last caveat is that models are showing a round of convection Saturday morning in the Rolling Plains which may result in a messy surface boundary situation which may effect timing and placement of afternoon convection for better or worse. A remnant outflow boundary could enhance potential for convective initiation farther west or persistent cloud cover could limit daytime heating and reduce chances of any thunderstorm initiation. After tomorrow evening/night, much quieter weather is expected with zonal flow aloft, increasing thickness, and breezy west to southwest winds leading to warming temperatures and low chances of precipitation until Wednesday when thunderstorm chances return but long range models are showing large variance. Temperatures are forecast to warm into the 80s on Monday and then rising into the low 90s on Tuesday before long range models show increasing chances of precipitation and cooler air with a shortwave trough or at least a more meridional component in the upper level flow. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 VFR conditions forecast at all sites throughout the TAF period. There is some uncertainty in ceiling heights due to the morning convection for KCDS. Otherwise, gusty westerly winds will persist during the day that weaken after sunset. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ021>024-027>030-033>035-039-040. && $$ SHORT TERM...58 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...58