322
ACUS11 KWNS 100103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100103
LAZ000-TXZ000-100230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0738
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0803 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Texas into western
and northern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...224...

Valid 100103Z - 100230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222, 224
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watches 222 and 224. Severe winds and hail remain the primary
threats. Conditions are being monitored for upscale growth into a
bow echo and accompanying risk of a greater damaging wind threat.

DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells with a history of producing severe
hail (up to 4 inches in some cases) and isolated damaging gusts
continue to progress southeast over central TX. These storms are
impinging on a zonal baroclinic boundary, where additional storms
have recently initiated. Given 4500+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50-70 kts of
effective bulk shear in place, any supercells that remain discrete
will continue to pose a damaging gust and large hail risk, including
stones exceeding 2 inches in diameter.

Of greater concern is the possibility of upscale growth into an
organized bow-echo MCS, which could produce an appreciable swath of
severe gusts (including those exceeding 75 mph) upon development.
However, intense bow-echo development is conditional upon efficient
cold pool mergers and the progressive cold pool boundary (convective
leading line) becoming oriented roughly normal to the deep-layer
shear vector. The latest high resolution model guidance, including
the last few runs of the HRRR and Warn-on-Forecast ensemble output,
lean against this scenario. Nonetheless, should storms remain more
discrete, high-resolution guidance still suggests that at least some
severe wind potential will continue into the evening hours, and a
couple of 75+ mph gusts could still occur.

..Squitieri.. 05/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30229880 31099820 32219481 32539331 32639179 32459177
            31799237 31039389 30569496 30089656 29869771 30229880