065
FXUS62 KMHX 281729
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
129 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored offshore through mid week. A
cold front may then impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1005 AM Sun...Aforementioned low cloud and fog bank has
quickly dissipated as heating begins in earnest over eastern NC
under high pressure anchored offshore while mid-level ridge and
subsidence remains overhead. Temperatures are rising a touch
faster than anticipated and made some modest near-term
adjustments to capture trends, including raising forecast highs
in OBX into the 70s. Sea breeze will kick off shortly, but
aforementioned subsidence keep chances of any developing shower
activity near zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sunday...

A light south to southwest flow plus warming thicknesses will
support milder temperatures tonight, with lows around 60 degrees
areawide. This is about 5 degrees, or so, warmer than normal
for late April. Like this morning, there could be some patchy,
shallow fog around, but widespread, impactful fog is not
expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Low to mid 80s for the rest of the week

- Best rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday and then Saturday
  into Sunday next weekend.

FORECAST DETAILS

Monday...High pressure will be in control on Monday and weather
will be quiet. No precipitation is expected. High temperatures
will be in the low to mid 80s with mid to upper 70s along the
immediate coast.

Above normal temperatures continue on Tuesday with highs
reaching the low to mid 80s inland with mid to upper 70s along
the coast. Dry weather will prevail through much of the day on
Tuesday with a fairly unorganized disturbance beginning to
approach from the west with rain chances holding off until
overnight Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances have been
trending downward with this system so QPF will be fairly
minimal.

The aforementioned weak disturbance will move across the area on
Tuesday night or Wednesday and with it a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. This does not look like a severe threat at this
point. Thursday looks drier relative to Wednesday but another
slight chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms will be
possible, mainly in the western counties. Despite this moving
through the area, temperatures will remain high during this time
topping out in the upper 80s inland to mid to upper 70s along
the coast.

A little more moisture advection Saturday and Sunday with both
the Bermuda High and an approaching frontal system from the west
contributing to the increase in precipitable water. Low
chances (25- 30 %) for showers and thunderstorms with a
prefrontal trough on Saturday followed by slightly higher
chances (30-35%) with the main front on Sunday. Temperatures
slightly cooler both days but still well above normal for this
time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 130 PM Sun...The probability of sub-VFR conditions over
the next 24 hours is low - less than 10%.

High pressure sitting off the southeast coast continues to ridge
into the southeastern CONUS this afternoon while broad mid-level
ridge sits overhead. Much of the area is now seeing sct to bkn
diurnal cu field development, but unlike yesterday no isolated
shower activity is expected. Skies clear after sunset tonight
and remain so through tomorrow as column continues to dry.

Steady southwesterly winds this afternoon (with a few isolated
gusts to 15 kt) will subside overnight but still hover around
4-5 kt as weak front approaches from the north. This should
inhibit any fog formation, but if decoupling occurs would not be
surprised to see some reports of MIFG - most likely south of a
line from EWN to DPL.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...The expected synoptic weather pattern
carries a high probability of VFR conditions through next week,
with little to no aviation impacts. An approaching disturbance
will bring some chances for precipitation Wednesday and Thursday
afternoons.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

A transient area of low clouds and reduced visibility (2-3
miles) has been noted recently across the waters north of Cape
Hatteras. Based on satellite and local webcams, conditions are
quickly improving from north to south, and the impact to
mariners is expected to be minimal.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...The background northeasterly swell will
continue through tonight, with a developing southwesterly wind
swell late this afternoon into this evening. This will continue
to support seas of 3-5 ft through tonight. Light south winds of
5-10kt this morning will increase to 10-20kt this afternoon, and
become southwesterly. Modest southwesterly winds then continue
into tonight. There may be just enough of a gradient to support
a few gusts of 20-25kt, but the risk appears too low to warrant
any marine headlines.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sunday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure will shift offshore early next week, with inland
troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will
steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of
10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next
week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/MS
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RTE/SGK
AVIATION...RTE/MS
MARINE...RTE/RM