046
AWUS01 KWNH 010139
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-010738-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0362
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
939 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Areas affected...North Central Arkansas Into Central Missouri

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 010138Z - 010738Z

SUMMARY... Convection forming along a convergence zone over north
central Arkansas and south central Missouri will produce rainfall
rates to 2 inches per hour, with training convection along the
line will likely cause flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Convection developing along a convergence zone from
north central Arkansas into southern Missouri has been producing
heavy rain with rates to 2 inches per hour. While a narrow area,
this zone is expected to remain nearly stationary or only very
slowly shift eastward with time, as the nocturnal low-level jet
strengthens, combating the eastward movement of an upper level low
trying to drive the rainfall eastward. Instability has been modest
for much of the day due to cloud cover and intermittent light
rainfall, but dry air aloft moving over the boundary is helping to
increase potential instability, adding to the intensity of the
storms.

There has been considerable uncertainty over the last several days
on where this convergence zone will set up, ranging across much of
the state of Arkansas. CAMs guidance has been hinting at this
setup for over a day now, but the development of this convergence
zone has been delayed from most of the guidance. Now that it has
formed, the rain zone will be slow to move, resulting in flash
flooding. The interaction with additional convection tracking
north towards the convergence zone across southeast Arkansas and
northeast Mississippi may help to move the zone slowly eastward
over the next few hours...though the addition of more heavy
rainfall will likely worsen ongoing flash flooding concerns.

Into Missouri, heavier and steadier rain through the day has also
lowered FFGs, and convective activity has lead to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding. Since the convergence zone convection
will continue northward into the central part of the state, the
forcing is stronger with the stronger upper level low, and dry air
aloft will also move in overhead increasing potential instability,
additional flash flooding will be likely there as well.

Wegman

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38949171 38719099 37939029 35939015 34659064
            34209107 34149175 34359234 34869256 36049269
            37169284 38329321 38929275