Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
262 FXUS63 KMPX 081121 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 621 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected this afternoon and tonight across southern Minnesota. Locally heavy rain and a few strong or severe storms are possible. - Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through early next week. - Temperatures will remain near or above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Skies are mainly clear early this morning and winds are light. Areas of dense fog have developed over WI and in Kanabec and Chisago counties in MN. If it continues to expand during the next hour or two, may need to consider a Dense Fog Advisory through early morning. Ample sunshine early today will allow temperatures to warm into the 70s. A complex upper level pattern with several lows spanning the northern CONUS will lead to several areas of convective development today. A low approaching the mid Missouri Valley will set up a trough axis northwest into southwestern MN and eastern SD this afternoon. Steep mid level lapse rates with pockets of 7.5 C/km and strong surface heating will lead to SBCAPE approaching 1000 J/kg. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop after 20Z near the trough axis and may form clusters into tonight. Shear is somewhat lacking per forecast soundings, but the most vigorous updrafts could still produce marginally severe hail and strong winds. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible. Thunderstorms are possible farther north and east late this afternoon, but low level convergence is better near the trough axis which is where the best coverage will be. The low will push east overnight and convection should wane gradually through tonight and into early Thursday. Quiet weather follows Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, then a clipper will slide southeast to the Great Lakes Friday afternoon and Friday night. A pocket of steeper lapse rates will accompany the wave during peak heating Friday afternoon which will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern MN into WI. This weekend and early next week will feature several small scale disturbances traversing the region, each with low predictability. Any of these will bring more low shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the period with highs generally in the 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Some 80 degree temps are possible Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Clear skies this morning will give way to increasing mid level clouds later this morning and afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop mid to late afternoon near RWF and MKT, so continued the PROB30. Winds will shift easterly this morning and increase to around 10 kts. KMSP...Remaining quiet through much of the period. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon south and west. A few could develop nearby, but not confident enough on the timing or coverage for a mention yet in the TAF. Light and variable winds will become east around 14Z. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NE 10G20 kts. FRI...Mainly VFR. Chance PM MVFR/-TSRA. Wind NW 20G35 kts. SAT...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Chisago- Isanti-Kanabec-Mille Lacs. WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for Barron- Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Polk-Rusk. && $$ DISCUSSION...Borghoff AVIATION...Borghoff