Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
000
FNUS73 KMPX 151048
FWSMPX
Spot Forecast for Eagle Lake A RX...USFWS
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
548 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.
.DISCUSSION...
For the Eagle Lake A Rx fire, relative humidity will be roughly 50-60
percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25 percent this
afternoon. A few isolated showers are possible early this morning,
however they will not amount to much and elevated fire weather concerns will
persist through the day. Light early morning winds will increase out of the east,
sustaining between 15-20 mph this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph possible.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........46 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................60 percent at ignition...Min 22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
East winds 10 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /7400 knot-ft/ at ignition.
Max...excellent /62900 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 16 to 22 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM
Sky cover.......MC MC MC PC PC PC MC MC PC PC PC MC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............46 49 53 57 60 62 65 66 67 67 66 65
RH..............60 56 46 37 32 28 25 23 23 22 24 26
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..10 12 12 13 13 13 14 15 17 18 20 17
20 FT wind gust.16 18 18 18 20 20 20 22 23 25 26 24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.5 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.4 1.6
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.16 17 17 17 17 18 20 20 21 22 24 22
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers after 3 am. Slight chance of
thunderstorms after 3 am. Chance of rain
showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 16 to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (70400 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (10300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 20 to 26 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers and chance
of thunderstorms.
Temperature.........Max 54.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to
around 36 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the morning and early
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29900 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (62500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 28 to 37 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
$$
Forecaster...Strus
Requested by...Blatz
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410787.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL david_blatz@fws.gov